Blog post

DBMS 2015 Numbers Paint a Picture of Slow but Steady Change

By Merv Adrian | April 12, 2016 | 0 Comments

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Gartner recently published “Market Share: All Software Markets, Worldwide, 2015” (for clients) and the story the DBMS data tells continues themes we have been observing for some time in the market.

Overall, the DBMS space continued to grow in high single digits, coming in at $35.9 Billion in constant currency – an 8.7% growth over the prior year’s $33.1 Billion, which itself represented growth of 8.9% over 2013.

Note: This includes some restatements of prior numbers, as often happens with aggregates in economic publications, such as US government data. Vendors generally do not report DBMS directly, and our numbers are therefore educated estimates. Some of this year’s estimates shifted part of the revenue for cloud offerings from DBMS to the IaaS bucket – vendors charge a single price for a DBMS service which includes software and hardware. As they have provided more information to us, out estimates have moved. Other restatements are due to the way vendors themselves aggregate by changing business units, and there again, Gartner moved some of our estimates in light of these changes. Clients will note a difference comparing these numbers to the report linked above – those are in US dollars. I will update this post to contain both shortly.

Over the past 5 years, the megavendors have collectively lost share – the top 5 hold 89% but have dropped from 91.4% in 2011. Still, some shifts among the top 3 are occurring. Oracle has dropped 1.5 points since 2011 to 41.6%, and IBM 5.6 points to 16.5%, surrendering second place to Microsoft, who gained 0.8 to 19.4%.

How are the newcomers doing? By revenue number standards, there’s still not much to write home about, though progress is being made. Adding the 5 NoSQL vendors with revenue above $25M in 2015 – Basho, Couchbase, Datastax, MarkLogic and MongoDB  – the collective total is $364M, which would be good for eighth on the list.

The three Hadoop specialists have risen quickly, and in 2015, their total comes in at $323.2M – just behind the NoSQL group. There is some Amazon, IBM and Microsoft revenue not included there – they do not break it out – meaning this is a bit lower than “how much revenue is there for Hadoop?”

Amazon Web Services is a substantial newcomer to this year’s version of the DBMS list. Gartner estimates AWS revenue attributable to DBMS in 2015 at $833.6M – breathing down Teradata’s neck for the #5 spot, and likely to move past them in 2016, given their current growth rate of 33% before the introduction of RDS Aurora.

Clearly the picture is changing, and though the effects are just beginning to be significant, they will grow substantially through this decade. The picture in 2020 will be quite different.

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