Gartner Blog Network

New Research: Predicts 2009: The Evolving Open-Source Software Model

by Mark Driver  |  December 8, 2008  |  Comments Off on New Research: Predicts 2009: The Evolving Open-Source Software Model

We’ve just published a research note that has some key predictions for open source over the next several years.  It’s only available to Gartner clients but here are some highlights…

Key Findings

  • By 2012, at least 50% of direct commercial revenue attributed to open-source products or services will come from projects under a single vendor’s patronage.
  • Through 2011, less than 50% of Global 2000 IT organizations will have implemented a formal open-source adoption and management policy as part of an enterprise software asset management strategy.
  • Through 2013, 50% of mainstream IT projects using open-source software (OSS) will not achieve cost savings over closed-source alternatives.
  • Through 2013, 90% of market-leading, cloud-computing providers will depend on OSS to deliver products and services.


  • Expect vendors to play an increasing role in the governance of many market-leading, open-source solutions during the next several years.
  • Move aggressively to establish an effective enterprise adoption policy, and bring OSS under asset management controls.
  • Do not expect to automatically save money with OSS or any technology without effective financial management. Do expect to carefully manage open-source solutions in the appropriate scenarios to realize total cost of ownership (TCO) advantages.
  • Manage cloud-based software strategies and open-source strategies together for maximum effect. Look for synergies between both, and the ability of OSS to move your workloads to the cloud.

The ‘meat’ behind these findings are in the note.

Additional Resources

View Free, Relevant Gartner Research

Gartner's research helps you cut through the complexity and deliver the knowledge you need to make the right decisions quickly, and with confidence.

Read Free Gartner Research


Mark Driver
Research VP
12 years at Gartner
27 years IT industry

Mark Driver is a vice president and research director in Gartner Research, where he specializes in application development technologies and open-source software. Within Gartner, Mr. Driver serves as a principal analyst for Java technology, as well as the Microsoft .NET framework. He is also the principal analyst covering the business and technical issues of the open-source software model. He covers many aspects of open-source software, including adoption challenges, best practices, market impact and development models.Read Full Bio

Comments are closed

Comments or opinions expressed on this blog are those of the individual contributors only, and do not necessarily represent the views of Gartner, Inc. or its management. Readers may copy and redistribute blog postings on other blogs, or otherwise for private, non-commercial or journalistic purposes, with attribution to Gartner. This content may not be used for any other purposes in any other formats or media. The content on this blog is provided on an "as-is" basis. Gartner shall not be liable for any damages whatsoever arising out of the content or use of this blog.