We’ve just published a research note that has some key predictions for open source over the next several years. It’s only available to Gartner clients but here are some highlights…
- By 2012, at least 50% of direct commercial revenue attributed to open-source products or services will come from projects under a single vendor’s patronage.
- Through 2011, less than 50% of Global 2000 IT organizations will have implemented a formal open-source adoption and management policy as part of an enterprise software asset management strategy.
- Through 2013, 50% of mainstream IT projects using open-source software (OSS) will not achieve cost savings over closed-source alternatives.
- Through 2013, 90% of market-leading, cloud-computing providers will depend on OSS to deliver products and services.
- Expect vendors to play an increasing role in the governance of many market-leading, open-source solutions during the next several years.
- Move aggressively to establish an effective enterprise adoption policy, and bring OSS under asset management controls.
- Do not expect to automatically save money with OSS or any technology without effective financial management. Do expect to carefully manage open-source solutions in the appropriate scenarios to realize total cost of ownership (TCO) advantages.
- Manage cloud-based software strategies and open-source strategies together for maximum effect. Look for synergies between both, and the ability of OSS to move your workloads to the cloud.
The ‘meat’ behind these findings are in the note.