From a security perspective, Oracle acquiring Sun is mostly about Identity and Access Management – Earl Perkins and Gartner’s IAM team will be putting out a First Take with our official position. From the larger security market perspective, mega-deals like this always have ripple effects:
- Herd mentality – there will likely be copycat mergers, as merger-itis seems to spread pretty quickly as the initial culprits spin the press about how revolutionary the new combination will be. Generally, the copycat mergers have an even worse track record than the first wave.
- Eye off the ball opportunities – there is nothing less nimble than two large companies in the throes of merging. Lots of opportunities for competitors (large and small) to jump in and rip out chunks o’ flesh.
- Brain drain and the new startup echo effect – The top talent will be given incentives to stay around for at least a year, then will leave. Around 2H 2010 Gartner will get a lot of briefing requests from acquirer/acquiree veterans who are starting up the companies they always wanted to see. Its like flowers blooming, nourished by the ashes of the previous company.
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