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Panjiva reminding economy watchers to not get overly excited

by Andrew White  |  October 14, 2009  |  1 Comment

Though retail spend is holding up, and the stock market is running off into the distance, Panjiva’s analysis of inbound purchased products to the US, representing a measure of global trade, suggests that organic demand in the economy remains weak.  In fact the data suggests another slight fall: See September Data: Global Trade Declines.

Re-stocking at retail has slowed down, which has a knock-on affect to their suppliers, which together impacts imported procurement activities.  Despite the current hype around “the recession is almost over” this data is a bit of a cold shower.  Are we clear of the worst? 

This data is hard to refute – its analysis is the tricky part.  If retail re-stocking for Christmas is already over, and global trade is slowing again, then I would short retail stocks over the Christmas period.  Despite the Dow hitting 10,000 today, Wal-Mart was apparently taking a bit of a beating.  Are we set for a market sell off?

Look also at the Baltic Exchange Dry Index, and you see that prices for large capacity global freight remains low – another sign that global trade is not increasing that much, if at all.

If I could, I would go long with Wal-Mart (they have taken the hit already perhaps?) but go short for its big competitors until January.  Or look for fall guys that will take a bigger beating…look into Panjiva’s segmented data.

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Category: economy  

Tags: economy  

Andrew White
Research VP
8 years at Gartner
22 years IT industry

Andrew White is a Distinguished Analyst and VP. His roles include Chief of Research and Content Lead for Data and Analytics. His main research focus is data and analytics strategy, platforms, and governance. Read Full Bio

Thoughts on Panjiva reminding economy watchers to not get overly excited

  1. Rudy says:

    Totally agree with your point on the BDI and picking stocks to short…maybe Tiffany and Dryships?

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