Stephen Prentice
VP & Gartner Fellow
13 years at Gartner
35 years IT industry
Stephen Prentice is a VP and Gartner Fellow working in the Executive Leadership and Innovation Group (part of CIO Research). He takes a specific interest in emerging trends and the long-term future of technology - looking at the intersection of technology, business and society. Current research interests include... Read Full Bio
by Steve Prentice | February 7, 2009 | Comments Off
My continuing briefing tour through Australia and New Zealand is providing an interesting opportunity to step back and consider the current situation from a somewhat different angle. Not least of which is the extreme contrast in the meteorological conditions. Whilst the UK (and friends and family) continue under a blanket of snow and freezing temperatures, Australia remains in the grip of a relentless heatwave with temperatures reaching all time highs in the mid 40′s (that’s centigrade, equivalent to 110 degrees fahrenheit and rising!). Browsing the weekend financial papers here this morning were several reports implying that Australian business leaders have not yet realised just how serious the global situation was. That may be unfair, but the same comment could probably be leveled at many business leaders (and technology analysts). This is not business as usual.
Hence it was interesting to follow the discussions at that other global get-together of the leading thinkers (no, NOT Davos – I’m talking about TED). This remains one of the most inspiring forums around, with it’s broad range of subject matter and diverse approaches, to say nothing of some of the best presentations you will ever see. The structure of “Reboot, Reframe, Reconnect” for the opening day struck a chord with me (hence the title of this entry). Just like a software program which has hung maybe we cannot simply expect things to sort themselves out without radical action.
Maybe it is time to reboot in the real world as well – however painful that may be.
Category: Uncategorized Tags: economy, TED
by Steve Prentice | February 3, 2009 | Comments Off
Presenting Gartner’s Top 10 Predictions for 2009 to an Australian audience brought both a predictable comment and a reassurance that we are all in the current mess together. First off there was the comment, “well these are global high level trends – how about something specific to the local market?”. But the headlines in the Australian newspapers were all about local initiatives to create “green” jobs and protests about “Australian jobs for Australian workers”. Funny that, when I left the UK the news was all about creating new jobs as a result of environmental issues and local strikes in the UK, France, Spain and elsewhere about jobs being taken by immigrant workers. So not much difference there then!
Protectionism has been in the news a bit recently and is an understandable, emotional response to the tragedy of people losing their jobs. But in today’s global economy it simply is not an option. You can protect your own industries but don’t complain when you suffer as a result of other countries doing the same. The technology industry especially is global and that is the end of it.
The current economic gloom is depressing enough, without the feeling that someone else is having a much easier time of it!
Category: Behaviour Tags: protectionism
by Steve Prentice | February 2, 2009 | Comments Off
I’m in Brisbane (Queensland, Australia) about to kick of ten days of briefings and client visits. It will be interesting to see the current issues from the other side of the world – a whole new perspective on the situation – or maybe it will be all the same! Whatever the case I’m sure it will be thought provoking.
What is different is the weather – heavy snow at home and I’m basking in summer and eating in the open air – sometimes being an analyst isn’t all bad!
Category: Uncategorized Tags:
by Steve Prentice | January 30, 2009 | Comments Off
I speak with a lot of clients regarding the use of virtual worlds within the enterprise for a wide variety of purposes and the most frequent question is “Which is the leading platform?”. Well the answer to that depends! Are we talking number of active users, number of signups (not the same thing!), virtual space (is big better?), profitability, stability, scaleability, ease of use ….. The list is endless and the simple answer is always the same – it depends on what is important to you.
Now this might seem an obvious thing to say, but judging from the questions I get asked, it is worth saying again, and again, and again! First understand what you are trying to achieve, who is going to use the environment, from where and for what purpose. Understand what you mean by success, and how you are going to measure it. Understand your capabilities (in a technical sense) and those of your users. Understand the likely scale and growth of your requirements – is it a short term trial or a long term deployment that will grow and (hopefully) grow and grow?
Then, and only then, are you ready to start looking at technology platforms. Choose a platform too early and, since most of us find it tough to admit we made a mistake, you will end up trying to push a square peg into a round hole – with all too predictable results. Apart from anything else, the market is still evolving at a fairly rapid pace, with new products coming out of beta and existing products becoming more stable and scaleable all the time.
Do yourself a favour – leave the technology decision till last!
Category: Behaviour technology Tags: Virtual Worlds
by Steve Prentice | January 29, 2009 | Comments Off
I was speaking at the Learning Technologies 2009 conference in London yesterday on the subject of virtual worlds as a tool for enterprise learning. Being confined to just 20 minutes or so means you really have to boil the ocean down – which is actually quite a good discipline since most analysts can talk for hours! A great deal of my talk (I won’t call it a presentation since I declined to use any slides at all – Powerpoint just gets in the way!) centered around how effective virtual worlds are compared with other, non 3D enabled alternatives.
This is actually an increasingly common discussion I am having, since many organisations are now looking towards virtual meetings and training to avoid the necessity for travel – being green and saving money. And, whilst I remain very positive about the long term future for virtual worlds, there is a growing sense that in some cases, they are not helping. I think there are two things at work here. Firstly, the (oft-times) significant learning curve to become comfortable with moving an avatar around a landscape is fine if you are in exploratory, pilot scheme mode. But if you need to get something done in a hurry, it is easier to postpone the learning experience for now and use more familiar, non 3D, tools like WebEx, video conferencing or whatever you are familiar with. This is not a rejection of avatar-based virtual worlds but a pragmatic response to a pressing requirement.
The second factor is whether having an avatar presence actually helps or not. I am reminded of the early days of video conferencing (many years ago). Everyone was excited by the new technology and there was a lot of waving and visual involvement in the first few calls. But once the “cool factor” had evaporated everyone just got down to business discussing whatever document they were working on. The visual information simply didn’t add value. Now things might have changed since then with the quality of high-definition telepresence systems or the convenience of desktop video, but the principle remains the same.
So, if the purpose of the interaction is based around location, or where the contextual relationship between individuals (represented by their avatars) is germane and significant, then 3D, avatar based solutions make sense and add real value. Examples would be scenario training, location familiarisation, emergency evacuation training, multi-person interactions (perhaps in a retail environment) which are non-deterministic and thus require more than simply watching a video. On the other hand, where the content of the discussion is the primary focus (such as might be the case for a project progress meeting or a presentation of some new program or product) then avatars become less essential and, for the inexperienced user, will actually distract them from concentrating on the real subject for discussion.
Now this doesn’t mean that virtual world and avatars are bad, it is just a recognition that in some cases the added value they bring in terms of immersive experience, fail to outweigh the costs in terms of learning curve, distraction and resources. Over time, as we gain increased familiarity, these drawbacks diminish, but for now it is clear that the simpler, non avatar based solutions, may be a better bet when content rather than context is the primary focus. I will be writing more on this segmentation as more examples and case studies emerge over the coming months.
Category: Virtual Worlds Tags: avatar, content, context, location
by Steve Prentice | January 27, 2009 | Comments Off
So (according to various news reports) Stephen Fry now has more than 63,000 followers on Twitter. Well bully for him! Here we have one of the great theatrical and comic talents of our time, who is finding a use for Twitter as a means of reaching out to his audience, or maybe he is simply jumping on the band-wagon. But with a successful stage career in progress I hope that he has not fallen prey to the unfortunate tendency of measuring his value by the number of friends in his social network. Surely we are better than that! Twitter has it’s detractors, but it also has it’s value, and the problem lies not with the technology but the obsession we seem to have developed with the number of people in our social network.
Social and anthropological research shows that social groups are unstable beyond a couple of hundred (actually 150 or so in the case of Dunbar, or as much as twice that in the case of the more recent Bernhard-Killworth, see this wiki entry). So any concept of having a relationship with 60,000 or more is a little unlikely!
Perhaps that other comic genius Groucho Marx was right when he said “I refuse to join any club that would have me as a member!”.
Category: Behaviour Tags: dunbar's number, social network
by Steve Prentice | January 26, 2009 | Comments Off
They say “a picture tells a thousand words” and I am increasingly awed by the technology that is becoming available to the general public, often for free or at minimal cost, to enable us to capture, store, manipulate and publish images rather than text. Whether this is what is driving the mental migration of the next generation towards images rather than words, or it is their preference for images rather than words that is driving developers I don’t know. In all probability it is the combined impact of both.
Two examples to illustrate this. My children frequently use YouTube in the way that most of us oldies use Google – as a search engine to find a video to show them how to do something rather than a (text-based) description. The requests can be as diverse as the steps for a new dance move or instructions on how to put a watermark on an image in Photoshop. The combination of millions of people being able to create video “tutorials”, upload and publish them, with huge online storage and a service that allows users to search for them (and all for free) is a powerful and compelling of what technology can do.
The second example combines the power of images and the social community that develops around a big event. Photosynth was developed by Microsoft Labs and made available some time ago. It stitches together multiple images to create a panoramic, almost 3D view of a scene but it does it automatically. The recent inauguration provided a wonderful example of what it can do. Literally thousands of people who were in Washington DC on the day have uploaded their pictures from wherever they were and Photosynth has created an incredible panoramic image that perfectly captures the “moment” in a way that a single individual, taking photos from a single vantage point, would never have been able to. A perfect combination of images and an “on the day” community to capture a moment in history with a powerful image that owes everything to technology.
This was organised and hosted by CNN and MSNBC. Check it out.
Category: technology Tags: images, photosynth, video
by Steve Prentice | January 23, 2009 | Comments Off
Well that is the only plausible solution I can offer for two separate news items over the past couple of days.
According to government figures reported this morning by the BBC the UK is in a recession. Well knock me down with a feather, I would never have guessed! Half the high street has gone bust, there are close on 2 million unemployed, the stock market is on the floor and it just keeps getting worse. Since the fact that we were in a recession was blindingly obvious to everyone in the country (apart from the government it would seem) they must be occupying a parallel universe where a different reality exists.
(And yes, I realise the technical definition of a recession require two consecutive quarters of negative growth, but it is government pronoucements like this one that convince an already cynical population of their lack of grasp on reality!)
The second example I will offer took place at an unearthly hour yesterday morning. I am not a morning person so whilst my wife was charging around getting ready for work she was listening to one of the morning TV programs. Through the fog of a brain still lacking sufficient caffeine to kick start the neural synapses I heard some studio “expert” talking about the dangers of uncontrolled access to the internet by children and informing us that “some teenagers are spending as much as two hours a week on Facebook”. TWO HOURS A WEEK?! This guy clearly didn’t have teenage children. How about four or more hours a DAY! In fact it is probably longer, since they use it as a backdrop to everything else, switching effortlessly from homework to IM to updating their status and checking on the latest photos from their friends. All I can imagine is that this gentleman was discussing the behaviour of children in the same parallel universe that the UK government is occupying, because it doesn’t look or feel much like the one I am in!!!
Category: Uncategorized Tags: facebook, recession
by Steve Prentice | January 22, 2009 | Comments Off
So, according to numerous reports, it seems that President Obama is going to be keeping his Blackberry – at least for now. My colleagues in the security group here at Gartner have been actively discussing (and patiently explaining to the rest of us) the implications of that. This could be challenging for many traditionalists. However, in the midst of the following the serious discussion I did find myself wondering what his signature might look like -
“From the Office of the President of the United States.
Please excuse the typos, sent from my mobile device!”
Sorry! But then again, he and Chief Justice John Roberts did fluff the lines for the oath of office causing them to retake the oath later in the day out of “an abundance of caution”. No pressure of course, only a billion or so people listening!
Anyway, on to more trivial matters (!). I am becoming increasingly impressed and delighted by the diversity of applications which are turning up for my iPod Touch (and the iPhone as well of course), as well as the ease with which you download and install them. Whilst browsing App Store last night I came across this gem from iHandySoft Inc. It turns your iTouch/Phone into a spirit level and is a beautiful combination of retro looks (it actually looks like a bubble in a nice wooden mount) and the modern – it provides a digital readout. It also appears to be pretty accurate, and best of all it is FREE. I think it is this type of application that exemplifies all that is best about this growing ecosystem – Apple claim to have served more than 500 million applications to date.
So, what other gems have you found in App Store – especially the free ones! Please share (and I promise to excuse the typos if you post from your mobile device!!)
Now I’m off to rehang those pictures, and this time I will get them straight!!!
Category: Uncategorized Tags: Apple, email, obama
by Steve Prentice | January 21, 2009 | Comments Off
I am not a fan of mobile email devices, and iTAP and T9 leave me confused. But as someone who grew up (at least in computing terms) in the UNIX era, I am a true fan of email – it’s just that I prefer to do my typing on a real keyboard and spell words correctly. I am distinctly unimpressed to get cryptic messages from my offspring along the lines of “L8 CU sn”. It takes me longer to work out what they are trying to say (and a whole lot longer than it took them to type!) and when I do work out what they mean I am usually unimpressed by the content – but that is another story.
So nestling in my inbox this morning was the usual crop of emails from various colleagues with a growing number ending in the rather lame disclaimer “Sent from my wireless device, please excuse the typos”.
I’m afraid that just sums up my feelings about these devices – they are clearly unfit for the purpose if you have to excuse your inability to type correctly on every message. What is often even more hilarious (although it could be totally catastrophic) is when the so-called “smart” device (who says it’s smart? what is it’s IQ? where are the qualifications?) kindly takes it upon itself to complete the word it thought you were trying to type and you don’t notice in your hurry to get to the next critical phase of your day! I have had some howlers in the past – feel free to contribute!
Category: technology Tags: email, wireless
