This is actually an increasingly common discussion I am having, since many organisations are now looking towards virtual meetings and training to avoid the necessity for travel – being green and saving money. And, whilst I remain very positive about the long term future for virtual worlds, there is a growing sense that in some cases, they are not helping. I think there are two things at work here. Firstly, the (oft-times) significant learning curve to become comfortable with moving an avatar around a landscape is fine if you are in exploratory, pilot scheme mode. But if you need to get something done in a hurry, it is easier to postpone the learning experience for now and use more familiar, non 3D, tools like WebEx, video conferencing or whatever you are familiar with. This is not a rejection of avatar-based virtual worlds but a pragmatic response to a pressing requirement. 

The second factor is whether having an avatar presence actually helps or not. I am reminded of the early days of video conferencing (many years ago). Everyone was excited by the new technology and there was a lot of waving and visual involvement in the first few calls. But once the “cool factor” had evaporated everyone just got down to business discussing whatever document they were working on. The visual information simply didn’t add value. Now things might have changed since then with the quality of high-definition telepresence systems or the convenience of desktop video, but the principle remains the same. 

So, if the purpose of the interaction is based around location, or where the contextual relationship between individuals (represented by their avatars) is germane and significant, then 3D, avatar based solutions make sense and add real value. Examples would be scenario training, location familiarisation, emergency evacuation training, multi-person interactions (perhaps in a retail environment) which are non-deterministic and thus require more than simply watching a video. On the other hand, where the content of the discussion is the primary focus (such as might be the case for a project progress meeting or a presentation of some new program or product) then avatars become less essential and, for the inexperienced user, will actually distract them from concentrating on the real subject for discussion.

Now this doesn’t mean that virtual world and avatars are bad, it is just a recognition that in some cases the added value they bring in terms of immersive experience, fail to outweigh the costs in terms of learning curve, distraction and resources. Over time, as we gain increased familiarity, these drawbacks diminish, but for now it is clear that the simpler, non avatar based solutions, may be a better bet when content rather than context is the primary focus. I will be writing more on this segmentation as more examples and case studies emerge over the coming months.

In one of the industry sessions at CES MIke Griffith, CEO of leading game developer Activision Publishing claimed that online video games were poised to eclipse other forms of media entertainment, and provide numerous trends and statistics to support his case. I am strongly inclined to agree with him, although it isn’t exactly a startling revelation given the developments over the past couple of years. As I have pointed out on many occasions, gaming represents the cutting edge of technology today and certainly encompasses some of the most innovative minds who can see how the powerful technology can be used, and how new forms of interaction can attract and retain new audiences. Look at the success of the Nintendo Wii with it’s inertial sensors in the hand controller. 

Gaming is becoming social computing at it’s best – changing the way we interact with technology and with each other, helping to build new communities, providing new opportunities for user generated content, pulling us in to compelling story lines that make us care about what is going on in the virtual world into which we have immersed ourselves. To touch people at that emotional level is the key to their ongoing success and attraction. In his presentation, Mike Griffith talked about the three basics of gaming, technology, community and interaction – but emotional involvement, immersion and community are where it is really at. In these difficult times there is also the opportunity to escape into a world where you feel more in control. The great depression of the 1930′s was the heyday of the spectacular Busby Berkeley style musical extravaganzas, a fantasy world about as far as it was possible to get from the harsh realities of the real world, and the audiences flocked to see them. Maybe Guitar Hero is the 2009 equivalent?

What has been interesting over the past couple of years is the degree to which gaming has broadened beyond the simple shooter, adventure and driving games into user generated content (Sony’s Little Big Planet for example) and music (Activision’s Guitar Hero), not only breaking out of the male gamer stereotype (yes, girls want to be rock stars as well!) but competing more directly with other forms on entertainment and activity.

But so what I hear you say (if you have even got this far!). Well there is mounting evidence that the skills acquired on the game controller are transferable into real life, driving, flying, even in surgery! Gaming, and the more “respectable” simulation are well established in the learning environment with ongoing work by many organisations such as the Serious Games Institute to expand the growth of “serious games”. People learn by doing, not by reading (or even watching), so learning in a 3D collaborative environment helps people acquire new skills and understanding more quickly than they would otherwise do so, and in a much safer and less costly manner.

3D collaborative environments such as Second Life might appear like a game, but they are acquiring more business orientation with extensions like Immersive Workspace and more closely meeting the growing needs of business users to work effectively together without the need for travel – something which will be increasingly important in the coming months as the economic climate starts to bite into budgets. Some time ago IBM studied the role of gaming in business leadership (you can download a copy of the report here). “If you want to see what business leadership will look like in three to five years, look at what is happening in online games” concluded Byron Reeves, co-founder of Seriosity Inc., IBMs partner in the study.

So the next time the kids are driving you nuts with their gaming, kick them off the system and get in there yourself – you may even enjoy it and you will certainly learn something about user interfaces and the social role of computing in the future.

Firstly, I think 2009 is going to be the year of 3-D. I’ve been watching this space all of last year and it is a natural progression from the gestural computing that I observed progressing so much in 2008. I’m not talking about the fifties-style 3-D glasses, but something a little more sophisticated. We will see 3-D in computer gaming, in entertainment, on the desktop in dozens of different ways. The world may have been flat up to now, but things are going to get more interesting from here on out.

Secondly (and I have commented on this before) I think the combination of technology advancement, increasing user acceptance and the pressures arising from the current economic woes, will result in a big increase in the use (however unwillingly) of virtualised collaboration environments – everything from web conferencing through virtual worlds.  I suspect we will also see some progress towards virtual seminars/conferences – 2008 saw some experiments but 2009 will see a lot more I suspect.

Third I think 2009 is going to see a lot of smaller, less obtrusive computing environments. Some of these will be embedded into other systems (home entertainment for example) but also more netbooks (I was browsing down at the local office supplies store (how sad!) and almost ended up buying one recently – it was so cute and ridiculously inexpensive!). Do I need another notebook? Not really, but at that price it barely matters! The continuing fall in the price of solid state memory helps to fuel this trend (more SSD drives even for larger notebooks I expect) and it is going to be difficult to resist the coming generation of smartphones. At what point does a smartphone do the same job as a netbook? The other important element in this mix is the arrival of an application delivery mechanism like App Store and the wealth of applications that it makes available and accessible to non-technical users. This is an explosive cocktail of trends that will combine together very effectively.

Well, there we are (three is enough for now!). I’ll try to come back in 12 months and see how well I did!

Philip Rosedale, Linden Labs CEO, always had visionary ideas for Second Life and many enterprises have taken the plunge over the past couple of years. Reuters formalised departure is just the latest in a long list of disillusioned participants, although most have not seen the need to publicly announce their decision.

But the current economic gloom may yet hold a silver lining for virtual worlds (as a generic technology rather than any specific instance). As business leaders seek to control costs the business travel budget is about to get slashed, or at least severely curtailed. As the end of 2008 rolls around a lot of people are going to be looking with a slightly less jaundiced eye, at any technology that will allow meetings and collaboration without the need for expensive travel.

Virtual Worlds are going to be high on the list of potential candidates for consideration. Not, I hasten to add, the public variety whose meteoric rise (and fall) have dominated the headlines over the past couple of years – but the slightly boring, very practical (sorry, no designer outfits for your avatar!) and decidedly focused on productivity variety. The needs of the enterprise will dominate, so tight control over avatar Identity and security will take precedence over atmospheric lighting, gently swaying tress and rippling water. They will also lurk inside the corporate firewall or on secure shared service environments, so don’t expect to see much in the public arena. These are collaboration tools, targeted at productivity, information exchange and learning and anything that doesn’t aid that will be ruthlessly eliminated.

For most of us 2009 is looking like a tough year, but for virtual worlds with the right focus, 2009 could be a year of strong growth and we could all find ourselves spending more time in a virtual workspace whether we like it or not!