Steve Prentice

As the parent of teenagers I oft times despair of the amount of time they spend online, on social networking sites like Facebook, MySpace and the rest. I’m sure I’m not the first parent to demand they “get off the computer and get a life!”. As an analyst who has more than a passing involvement in these social behaviours this leaves me with a conundrum – I see it, I recognise that it must be valuable to them, but I’m not sure that I really understand it. But there is no doubt that Davey Winder does.

I picked up his new book “Being Virtual – who you really are online” without too many expectations and was totally impressed. This is the first book about virtual environments and online communities (and there have been plenty) that addresses the issues from the point of view of what these environments mean to people. If you struggle to understand why digital natives, your gen Y employees or even your kids do what they do, go read Davey’s book!

Apologies for the absence. (Note to self: Must post regularly to blog!)

I was at CeBIT in Hannover last week. Apart from the fact that my feet very rapidly reminded me of why, in the past, I resolved never to go again, it was an interesting experience.  I was moderating a panel on the business value of Virtual Worlds (more of which in a later post) but had the opportunity to work my way round some of the stands looking for interesting new developments. I didn’t find a lot I have to admit.

What I did find was a half empty hall devoted to “Green IT” (maybe NOT being there was the greenest strategy!) and another hall simply overflowing with cooling devices for CPUs. Water cooling, forced air cooling, you name it they had it.  It seems that when it comes to “sweating your assets” CPUs are having a hard time of it these days. I’m not sure what this contrasting set of exhibits says about the state of the industry today, but it seems we still cannot get enough horsepower.

In previous posts I have expressed my belief that 3D is going to be important this year, as gestural computing combines with improved technology (and lower costs) to bring about a far reaching revolution in the user experience. 

There are news reports this morning that Microsoft is looking to acquire the Israeli startup 3DV Systems, makers of the Z-cam depth sensing camera. Whilst their interest may initially be in the gaming space to support the X-box, expect to see this technology moving into broader applications in the coming months. This field is full of startups, many in stealth mode, and this will not be the last acquisition we see in 2009. As I said at the start of the year – 3D is going to be BIG!

I just love the Australians – they are direct and challenging, which always makes for a stimulating conversation. Yesterday, during a day of client meetings I was discussing social collaboration, innovation and the relationships between technology and society with a CIO and his team. He is a seasoned veteran who has seen it all and done it all. At the same time, he and his team have created a very Gen Y frienddly environment. Support for personal devices, no restrictions on access to social networking sites, lots of innovation and understanding about the expectations of a Gen Y workforce. I had to say I was impressed – he had gone much further than many organisations I speak with. Then he hit me with the sucker punch!

“So the question I have for you” he said, leaning back in his chair with the start of a wry smile on his face, “is this – we’ve done all this stuff for our Gen Y workforce – But what has Gen Y ever done for me?”.  Shades of Monty Python and the Romans!! It is a difficult question to answer, because many of the usual benefits about innovation and morale, recruitment and retention, productivity and collaboration are all difficult to measure, there is lots of soft benefits, but not a lot to wave at the CFO come budget time.

Now clearly, since actions speak louder than words, he believed that what he had done was necessary or it would never have happened, but the current conditions often require us to go back and measure and document the benefits. “What has Gen Y ever done for us?” is a very good question and I would welcome your answers (on a digital postcard please!). And don’t bother to mention the roads, or the sewage system – I’ve already got that on the list!

As a photographer one of the things you learn early on is to think about the “negative space” – the background, the stuff that is not the focus of attention. The human brain has an amazing ability to filter out the negative space whilst concentrating on the main subject – until you see the final image on a print or screen and think “I never saw that at the time!”. It is a useful lesson that can be applied elsewhere.

One of the benefits of travelling is that you get to read a lot – and on a flight down to Melbourne (where the weather, mercifully, has returned to something a little more normal) I read avery thought provoking article in Wired regarding the use of geosocial applications (applications which automatically provide information about your location). The writer, Mathew Honan provides a good summary of the benefits but, for the first time in my experience, also drives home the dangers of revealing too much about where you are – like where you are NOT (the negative space thing). For example, tell the world you are going on a trip (and even provide proof of how far you have got) and announce to the world that your house is now empty, time for a little burglary perhaps?

Sure, a smart hacker can gain this information from your cellular carrier, but should we really make it that simple, especially as the law enforcement authorities expect an increase in “acquisitive crime” during economic downturns?

This article might just make you more cautious about revealing too much!

My continuing briefing tour through Australia and New Zealand is providing an interesting opportunity to step back and consider the current situation from a somewhat different angle. Not least of which is the extreme contrast in the meteorological conditions. Whilst the UK (and friends and family) continue under a blanket of snow and freezing temperatures, Australia remains in the grip of a relentless heatwave with temperatures reaching all time highs in the mid 40’s (that’s centigrade, equivalent to 110 degrees fahrenheit and rising!). Browsing the weekend financial papers here this morning were several reports implying that Australian business leaders have not yet realised just how serious the global situation was. That may be unfair, but the same comment could probably be leveled at many business leaders (and technology analysts). This is not business as usual.

Hence it was interesting to follow the discussions at that other global get-together of the leading thinkers (no, NOT Davos – I’m talking about TED). This remains one of the most inspiring forums around, with it’s broad range of subject matter and diverse approaches, to say nothing of some of the best presentations you will ever see. The structure of “Reboot, Reframe, Reconnect” for the opening day struck a chord with me (hence the title of this entry). Just like a software program which has hung maybe we cannot simply expect things to sort themselves out without radical action.

Maybe it is time to reboot in the real world as well – however painful that may be.

Presenting Gartner’s Top 10 Predictions for 2009 to an Australian audience brought both a predictable comment and a reassurance that we are all in the current mess together. First off there was the comment, “well these are global high level trends – how about something specific to the local market?”. But the headlines in the Australian newspapers were all about local initiatives to create “green” jobs and protests about “Australian jobs for Australian workers”. Funny that, when I left the UK the news was all about creating new jobs as a result of environmental issues and local strikes in the UK, France, Spain and elsewhere about jobs being taken by immigrant workers.  So not much difference there then!

Protectionism has been in the news a bit recently and is an understandable, emotional response to the tragedy of people losing their jobs. But in today’s global economy it simply is not an option. You can protect your own industries but don’t complain when you suffer as a result of other countries doing the same. The technology industry especially is global and that is the end of it. 

The current economic gloom is depressing enough, without the feeling that someone else is having a much easier time of it!

I’m in Brisbane (Queensland, Australia) about to kick of ten days of briefings and client visits.  It will be interesting to see the current issues from the other side of the world – a whole new perspective on the situation – or maybe it will be all the same! Whatever the case I’m sure it will be thought provoking.

What is different is the weather – heavy snow at home and I’m basking in summer and eating in the open air – sometimes being an analyst isn’t all bad!

I speak with a lot of clients regarding the use of virtual worlds within the enterprise for a wide variety of purposes and the most frequent question is “Which is the leading platform?”. Well the answer to that depends! Are we talking number of active users, number of signups (not the same thing!), virtual space (is big better?), profitability, stability, scaleability, ease of use …..  The list is endless and the simple answer is always the same – it depends on what is important to you.

Now this might seem an obvious thing to say, but judging from the questions I get asked, it is worth saying again, and again, and again!  First understand what you are trying to achieve, who is going to use the environment, from where and for what purpose. Understand what you mean by success, and how you are going to measure it. Understand your capabilities (in a technical sense) and those of your users. Understand the likely scale and growth of your requirements – is it a short term trial or a long term deployment that will grow and (hopefully) grow and grow?

Then, and only then, are you ready to start looking at technology platforms.  Choose a platform too early and, since most of us find it tough to admit we made a mistake, you will end up trying to push a square peg into a round hole – with all too predictable results.  Apart from anything else, the market is still evolving at a fairly rapid pace, with new products coming out of beta and existing products becoming more stable and scaleable all the time.

Do yourself a favour – leave the technology decision till last!

I was speaking at the Learning Technologies 2009 conference in London yesterday on the subject of virtual worlds as a tool for enterprise learning. Being confined to just 20 minutes or so means you really have to boil the ocean down – which is actually quite a good discipline since most analysts can talk for hours! A great deal of my talk (I won’t call it a presentation since I declined to use any slides at all – Powerpoint just gets in the way!) centered around how effective virtual worlds are compared with other, non 3D enabled alternatives.

This is actually an increasingly common discussion I am having, since many organisations are now looking towards virtual meetings and training to avoid the necessity for travel – being green and saving money. And, whilst I remain very positive about the long term future for virtual worlds, there is a growing sense that in some cases, they are not helping. I think there are two things at work here. Firstly, the (oft-times) significant learning curve to become comfortable with moving an avatar around a landscape is fine if you are in exploratory, pilot scheme mode. But if you need to get something done in a hurry, it is easier to postpone the learning experience for now and use more familiar, non 3D, tools like WebEx, video conferencing or whatever you are familiar with. This is not a rejection of avatar-based virtual worlds but a pragmatic response to a pressing requirement. 

The second factor is whether having an avatar presence actually helps or not. I am reminded of the early days of video conferencing (many years ago). Everyone was excited by the new technology and there was a lot of waving and visual involvement in the first few calls. But once the “cool factor” had evaporated everyone just got down to business discussing whatever document they were working on. The visual information simply didn’t add value. Now things might have changed since then with the quality of high-definition telepresence systems or the convenience of desktop video, but the principle remains the same. 

So, if the purpose of the interaction is based around location, or where the contextual relationship between individuals (represented by their avatars) is germane and significant, then 3D, avatar based solutions make sense and add real value. Examples would be scenario training, location familiarisation, emergency evacuation training, multi-person interactions (perhaps in a retail environment) which are non-deterministic and thus require more than simply watching a video. On the other hand, where the content of the discussion is the primary focus (such as might be the case for a project progress meeting or a presentation of some new program or product) then avatars become less essential and, for the inexperienced user, will actually distract them from concentrating on the real subject for discussion.

Now this doesn’t mean that virtual world and avatars are bad, it is just a recognition that in some cases the added value they bring in terms of immersive experience, fail to outweigh the costs in terms of learning curve, distraction and resources. Over time, as we gain increased familiarity, these drawbacks diminish, but for now it is clear that the simpler, non avatar based solutions, may be a better bet when content rather than context is the primary focus. I will be writing more on this segmentation as more examples and case studies emerge over the coming months.