Richard GordonOur new global IT spending forecast is out!
The 2Q11 update to Gartner’s global IT spending forecast shows an upward revision to our US dollar growth forecast for 2011 from an AGR of 5.6% last quarter to 7.1% this quarter. However, in constant dollars, i.e. stripping out the effect of exchange rates, we have revised down our growth forecast for 2011 from 4.3% to 3.6%, reflecting the impact of a more challenging short-term global economic growth outlook.
So, not very interesting then? Actually, I think this quarter’s update is very interesting but more because of what didn’t happen rather than what did.
Since last quarter we have been carefully evaluating the impact of the Japan earthquake and tsunami on the global IT industry – both on the supply and demand sides. It is perhaps surprising that we have not seen a more significant impact on our global IT spending forecast for 2011 as a result of that devastating natural disaster.
On the supply side, rather than come out with a knee-jerk reaction in the immediate aftermath, we took a more considered stance and leveraged our in-depth knowledge of the electronics supply chain (right back to silicon wafer production) to check on the availability of critical components. This proved to be the right call as the global supply chain proved to be flexible enough to cope while Japanese manufacturing got back up and running. While there is still the potential for spot shortages of some components in 3Q, which could affect electronics equipment production, we believe that the worst is behind us with no significant impact on Global IT spending likely to be felt.
On the demand side, though, clearly the Japan economy has taken a big hit, which will impact Japanese Business and Consumer spending on IT this year. In local currency, IT spending in Japan is now forecast to decline in 2011 by about 1% … however, we expect to see a bounce-back by the end of the year and into 2012.
For more of the forecast details visit: Gartner’s IT Spending Forecast Web Page
And to hear Gartner analyst insight behind the numbers register for our upcoming Webinar here: IT Spending Forecast, 2Q11 Update Webinar
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