Google and Microsoft are now at roughly the same place in integrating realtime into the respective architectures.

Steve makes some good points, I think we may have a race between the two vendors who really matter in core IT platform technology. The outcome to shape IT spending for years to come. (Innovation in the Enterprise seems long overdue).

I will also say this: Google is institutionally patient. That’s very, very important here. I think its extreme patience has harmed it in some areas, such as Gmail, where had it gotten out of beta faster and heeded what we were saying about the need for rock-solid resiliency, it would have blocked Microsoft far faster and eliminated that competition early. There’s no competition for Wave right now, and so open sourcing it immediately eliminates and co-opts all competition. What goofball would announce tomorrow that he had thought of a super new replacement for email? Nine, because anyone who’s working on that now is busy fingering through sheaves of open source Wave code and figuring how to do it and leverage Google’s work and heft.

I’m well-known for disagreeing. I agree with this. I think it’s a cunning and effective strategy for Google to have adopted. I cannot, cannot wait to hear more from the likes of you, who can tell me if it does what it says. To the Slashdots!

Certainly there is a scenario where this system evolves to orders of magnitude more complex than in its current state, just like the first SMTP server evolved to the complex global network of email that we have today.

I agree the protocol is important, but, I agree with Google that of equal importance are the platform and product aspects. The analogy is to Google Maps, which was a great product, but also became pervasive in part because it was a platform for third-party developers to extend and adapt to a range of scenarios.

Lastly, a key factor behind Wave’s future adoption is that Google is open-sourcing large parts of the system. If this were not the case, I agree with you about the guy in Finland. The license is liberal enough that, in theory, you can download the source from Google and rebrand it and start a competitive service.

Also, it is soon enough to say that this won’t kill email. It won’t kill email. See how easy that was? There are lots of reasons for that, not the least of which is that email is like regular mail — postal mail — except that it’s electronic. That makes it handy for lots of formal things. Try taking a wave to a court any time in the next 10 years. “Look, your honor — the defendant implied the derivative was safe right here, next to the fractally decomposed picture of his dog.”

Also won’t kill mainframes. OK, sorry. Done that rant.

Can’t wait to hear more.

*Young folks graduating now are the first to grow up with the web. They expect real-time, IM, Facebook.
*Corp IT has poor business alignment, often blocking projects to maintain control. Salesforce CRM, adding iPhone support.
*The cost of commuting, energy, time, parking, triggers telecommuting (business meetings @ Starbucks)
*Vacant commercial real estate
*Mobile working

These changes build up pressures to change deeply-rooted behaviors. Enterprises may look for IT solutions to keep employees happy once the market for employees recovers.

In 5 years time….