Phillip Redman
Research VP
10 years at Gartner
17 years IT industry
Phillip Redman is a research vice president in Gartner Research, where he leads mobile research in the network services and infrastructure group. Mr. Redman brings almost 15 years of experience in the wireless mobile and telecommunications industry… . Read Full Bio
by Phillip Redman | May 2, 2011 | 1 Comment
Today is Capital Markets day at RIM where they talk about the year behind and the year ahead to financial analysts. But this week is also its annual wireless conference, BlackBerry World and it made two important announcements that’s going to impact enterprise mobility management. First, RIM is finally moving into multi-OS device support by acquiring the mobile device management (MDM) vendor Ubitexx, based out of Munich, Germany. Ubitexx was listed on our MDM Magic Quadrant and is a fairly strong provider in its market. RIM will eventually, in a year or so, integrate its multi-device capability into the BES. This will allow one-stop management for BlackBerry, Android, iOS and other devices. However, don’t expect RIM to be able to match the 550 policies it has for BB on other devices. Like any other MDM vendor, it will be limited to what the OS vendor will allow for support. Though no pricing was announced, it may drive up BES licensing costs, as co-CEO Jim Balsillie announced that the deal was also an opportunity for increased revenue.
RIM also announced the shipping of BlackBerry Balance. This is RIM’s capability for managing and securing corporate from personal data, which was announced earlier this year. There’s no doubt that the consumerization of mobile IT is placing a lot of stress on securing corporate data on personal devices. Other MDM vendors also provide containers around corporate data to allow additional security. The nice thing about doing this on the BlackBerry will be the consistent interface and integrated BES solution. Porting this capability to other OSes will be important as RIM moves deeper into MDM.
RIM is smart for supporting other devices on its BES. There’s no doubt as other platforms began to be supported into the enterprise RIM was worried about its position. If RIM can do for the enterprise what Apple has done for consumers–being a one-stop shop for enterprise devices, applications, content, management–it will be a more successful strategy than only selling smartphone devices, which are under constant pricing pressure and the threat of commoditization.
Category: Enterprise IT Mobile Device Management mobile phones mobility management RIM Tags: Enterprise, MDM, RIM, Smartphone
by Phillip Redman | April 28, 2011 | Comments Off
Last week’s broad public disclosure that Apple was keeping a tracking file on iOS 4.0 devices once again points to how apple does business its own way. For many, it was already known that the iPhone was easily tracked, with apps-a-plenty in the Apple App Store to help out on this. Not to mention the opt-in location information that just about every app asks for on start up. But the disclosure made at a tech conference in San Francisco highlighted that Apple was keeping a secret file and using the information–way beyond what anyone had suspected. On Wednesday it provided more detail on exactly what it tracks. It turns out, Apple says it only tracks the locations of WiFi and cell networks that the user is near. This clears up why those of us who looked at the file saw it wasn’t very accurate anyway. Google also does a similar thing on its Android OS, though unlike Apple, it is less anonymous by tying a known user identifier to the data. This week, the Wall Street Journal reported that Apple and Google also track users’ locations on PCs too–but through the browser this time. Both these items are causing quite the uproar, with lawsuits and politicians getting involved–and justifiably so. Both Apple and Google could have avoided much negativity if it had only been upfront about what they do and don’t do. But neither company works that way and much of their attitude is based on a wink and a nod and “just trust us.”
Apple did provide more details for us on Wednesday this week–but by then was too late. Many are skeptical of its claims and the distrust continues. In this age of transparency where people post what they had for lunch on Twitter and questionable photos for the world to see on Facebook, it is only right that we ask our vendors to be transparent too. It doesn’t have to be to the point of where it makes them less competitive, but if it impacts a user’s security or privacy–it needs to be known up front. In the end it is up to the buyer to decide, but having all the facts first will help make a more informed decision. It will also keep these companies out of the doghouse.
Category: Android Apple Facebook Google iPhone mobile phones Twitter Tags: privacy, security
by Phillip Redman | April 20, 2011 | Comments Off
RIM has launched its entry into the media tablet storm this week, with the much anticipated PlayBook. But trying to get ahead of the competition, it may have rushed it to the market without finalizing key attributes. First, is this a consumer device or an enterprise? It certainly isn’t both, maybe neither. Enterprise users need to “Bridge” to a BlackBerry device to see corporate data. Though this does offer a higher data protection, it just isn’t convenient. Most tablet users today want their work email on it too, and more likely they won’t have a BlackBerry to connect. This is enough to keep the PlayBook relegated to a niche market. Second, unlike other RIM devices, this offers lower battery life than the competition, and less stability. Two of the keys to the Apple iPad success has been its long battery life and ease of use. These are definitely a features that RIM should emulate and improve upon in order to beat a market leader.
There’s no doubt that the PlayBook is a fine piece of hardware, with a great look and feel, high quality screen and fast processor. But today it’s as much or more about the apps and the software that lead to high user adoption. Though the user interface is good, it has limited swiping capabilities and the general feeling is that the software isn’t ready for prime time yet. Oh yeah– and there are very few apps available at launch, while the competition has thousands. Even if all things were equal, the apps have it. Though eventually Android apps will be sold on the BlackBerry App World, most of those apps are smartphone, not tablet apps yet and it won’t be a simple thing. These new app players will allow users to download BlackBerry Java apps and Android apps from BlackBerry App World and run them on their BlackBerry PlayBook. These aren’t native apps, developers will still have to repackage, code sign and submit their BlackBerry Java and Android apps to BlackBerry App World. RIM will launch two optional “app players” that provide an application run-time environment for BlackBerry Java apps and Android v2.3 apps. How well those apps will run on the players is still to be determined. More focus on the software and less emphasis on the hardware is needed for success in mobility today. Apple has proved that.
Category: Android Apple Applications RIM Tablet Tags: Playbook
by Phillip Redman | April 13, 2011 | Comments Off
I wish carriers put as much time in planning their future, launching new services and creating new business models as they do in rejiggering current service plans and forming bundles. T-Mobile USA, perhaps a carrier with a very short future due to the proposed AT&T acquisition is the latest to go down this route. T-Mobile actually has launched some differentiated enterprise wireless services in the past including its voice-over-WLAN service, but lately has not offered much but lower pricing. I always considered T-Mobile USA the “low-cost” (read: cheapest) provider because it routinely offered lowest cost voice and data services. And was proud of it. Unfortunately this is not a successful path to go and it is looking at new ownership.
But T-Mobile USA is now changing its strategy, following Sprint Nextel and its “Simply Everything” down the “high-value, low cost” path by bundling everything and the kitchen sink into a high-end, unlimited voice and data plan. This plan would cost more than 6x what the average T-Mobile USA user spends today (which was $12.80 as of Q4 2010), and about 10% more than the average business user. It has a high value because the unlimited plan ensures a consistent spend and costs less than the sum of its parts. Sprint Nextel has seen some success going down this path, with the majority of its postpaid users are in these plans. But customers going to T-Mobile are not looking to spend more. Instead of trying to add more plans to an already confusing menu, I’d like to see a bigger focus on innovative development and services built around mobility. If that happened, then you could almost charge whatever you want.
Category: AT&T cellular Networks Sprint Nextel wireless carriers Tags: carrier, pricing, strategy, wireless
by Phillip Redman | March 30, 2011 | Comments Off
As I write this, I sit on a semi high-speed train running south from Boston through the Connecticut coastline towards the New York Metro area. It is the beginning of analyst briefing season. Like the greenish grass that emerges each Spring, most of the large technology vendors host groups of analysts to meet their executives and review plans for the coming year. Though many of us get regular briefings related to our research needs, this is a good chance to meet a lot of people from the companies, benchmark where they are compared to last year’s goals and set the stage for the coming year. It also means an increased amount of travel. Fortunately for me, many are in the New York and Boston metro area–making it a bit easier.
I mention this now as I head to Northen New Jersey, which remains the hub for most things telco in the United States. The breakup of AT&T spawned a number of HQs in the region including AT&T, Verizon, Avaya, (Alcatel) Lucent and many others. Though AT&T has a large presence in Atlanta, San Antonio and smaller ones in Redmond, WA and many other cities, it calls New Jersey home and hosts its GNOC there. As may many T-Mobile employees if the proposed acquisition is approved in the future. Sprint has already logged a protest to it this week.
It’s been a while since I posted–caused by both internal issues and the fact it’s been so darn busy this year. I promise to do more frequent updates-I don’t see it slowing down at all. I do see it getting more interesting as new wireless network technologies are launched, new devices and form factors emerge and enterprises continue to struggle with managing it all. Stay tuned and look for me on twitter under MobilePhillip too.
Category: Uncategorized Tags:
by Phillip Redman | December 5, 2010 | 1 Comment
Today, Verizon launched the beginnings of its next-generation network, based on LTE technology. It will initially cover 110 million POPs in 38 markets, 60 airports. It is a great initial launch, though it only covers about a third of the total population, though it says it will match its 3G network coverage by next year. In keeping with marketing hype, it calls it a 4th generation network, though true 4G technology standards have yet to be finalized. This version of LTE is a pre-cursor.
The technology will be used for data-only services and for the next six months only be accessed via data cards. Its customers can choose from two 4G LTE Mobile Broadband data plans: $50 monthly access for 5 GB monthly allowance or $80 monthly access for 10 GB monthly allowance, both with $10/GB overage. Unfortunately, a similar model we’ve seen for data services even on a brand new network technology.
The interesting thing about Veriaon’s launch of LTE is that it puts it in the path of what most top providers will launch in the next few years. Having previously chose CDMA vs. GSM-based technology, Verizon (and Sprint Nextel) were limited in a global basis. Soon Verizon and others will be able to take advantage of large global economies like never before. I hope that this trickles down to the end consumer, but in any event, maturity of this technology on a global basis won’t happen until around 2015.
Category: cellular International Networks Sprint Nextel Verizon Wireless Tags:
by Phillip Redman | November 9, 2010 | 2 Comments
Back in 1995, one of my first big wireless research projects was on pricing elasticity. At that time, a wireless voice minute cost about $2.25 and only about 13% of the population had phones. These were mostly business people who could get reimbursed for their use. In the industry, the widely held belief was that the cost of the phone was the biggest inhibitor to adoption. This led to subsidizing the phone, but growth was still tepid. What seems obvious now, but most were slow to recognize then, was that the cost of the service prevented most users from adopting phones. Once digital networks were launched, which increased capacity 4-10 times to that of the existing analog services, the cost per minute dropped rapidly. Today the average customer spends about $0.06 per minute. This same thinking is going into the recent price reductions for wireless data services that were announced by AT&T and Verizon Wireless in the past few months.
Recently AT&T and Verizon Wireless announced new tiered data pricing plans that are starting to move away from unlimited data, as seen in the table below (and predicted by me in a research note in January 2009). T-Mobile is expecting to respond to a $10 low-end pricing at the end of the year. Sprint currently bundles voice with its data pricing.
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Carrier
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Low
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Medium
|
Unlimited
|
|
AT&T
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$15 (250 MB)
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$25 (2 GB)
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$30 (for existing users only)
|
|
T-Mobile
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$25 (200 MB)
|
NA
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$40
|
|
Verizon Wireless
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$15 (150 MB)
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NA
|
$30
|
How did we get here? At first, unlimited data was a way to provide a predictable monthly charge for those who weren’t sure how much they would use each month. As BlackBerry devices dominated, their low usage (averaging about 4-6 MB per month) meant high profits for carriers. Adoption of these data services helped make it a significant portion of a wireless carriers’ revenues, replacing declining voice revenues. But in the past two years, devices with heavier data usage, Apple iPhone and Android devices (which can average 250 MB per month for some users) started to erode profits.
As adoption of smartphones and data plans increase, carriers once again are dropping prices to support lower-end users, mainly on Web-based and (non-corporate) email services. Anyone using wireless apps for video or audio streaming, gaming or file transfer will use well in excess of these low-end plans and will stay on the unlimited service. Voice pricing is also seeing a decline but in a different way as Verizon Wireless looks to lower its bundled voice and data plans for some users, competing with Sprint’s successful bundled packages. In the next couple years as next generation networks are launched, we’ll see a variety of new plans, many bundling in voice and data services, as carriers look to expand their offerings to more users.
Category: Apple AT&T cellular mobile phones Networks RIM Sprint Nextel Verizon Wireless wireless carriers Tags:
by Phillip Redman | November 5, 2010 | 5 Comments
We are now fully in the era of the smartphone. At no other time have we had such numerous choices of quality devices from companies like Samsung, Apple, Nokia, Apple, HTC, Motorola and RIM, to name just a few. Adoption of smartphones by both consumers and enterprises is big. This year, more than 70% of new phones brought in to U.S. enterprises will be smartphones. In the next few years, over 90% of business users will have a smartphone. No doubt the choice, quality and price is driving this adoption. In the past couple months I have tried out a few of the newer models–Apple iPhone 4, Samsung Galaxy S and the RIM BlackBerry Torch. Each has its strengths–iPhone 4 for ease of use, the Galaxy for its amazing screen and the Torch for its management and customization capabilities. Though the BlackBerry Torch will be adopted primarily by enterprise users, it has a much-improved touchscreen (compared to the variations of the Storm) and it does a nice job managing social networking. I think all three will have some success (duh!–tough analyst prediction here) but in the near term, the thing that will drive users, with most things being equal, will be the apps that are available for download.
Right now, Apple is in the lead for sheer quantity of apps, with over 300,00o available for its platform. Android is fast approaching, just topping the 100,000 mark. Now I’m not saying the more apps, the more devices sold–in fact, I think we’ve hit a bit of a plateau and it gets to a point where ten of the same app isn’t adding any value. But when users are making a decision between platforms, and the hardware and functionality of the device is almost equal, having a large number of apps to choose from is going to drive a big part of the end user decision. This means those that have fewer apps–averaging under 15,000 each–RIM, Windows Phone 7 manufacturers, HP Palm–are all fighting an uphill battle. Nokia has survived so far, but the Symbian platform is under pressure in Europe from competitors, and next year will feel the full impact. We have now entered the era of the smartphones, and apps are leading the way. And all platforms aren’t equal there.
Category: Android Apple Applications cellular HTC iPhone Motorola Nokia RIM Samsung Tags: apps, Smartphone
by Phillip Redman | October 8, 2010 | Comments Off
Vodafone Global Enterprise, the consulting arm of the large European telecom carrier, announced the acquisition today of two second tier TEM providers, Quickcomm and TnT (the details are well covered by my colleague Eric Goodness in a post today). It brings some welcome consolidation to a competitive market, where the biggest player in terms of pure TEM revenue is a mere $55 million and over 90% of the companies are under $20 million in revenue. Many of these companies are going after Global 1000 enterprises but what they lack is scale, and that is changing with today’s announcement. I think this acquisition is interesting in a few ways:
- Validates the market–though TEM has been around for decades, and has seen rapid growth over the past few years, a large player like Vodafone making two acquisitions in this space really validates the opportunity. Most large providers, either carriers or ITOs, have had partnerships with TEM players in the past, but this is the first big acquisition by a large communications service provider ( the outsourcer HCL made an an acquisition of a small TEM player, Control Point Solutions, last year but hasn’t done much with it yet). I think other carriers and communications service providers will follow this lead. Look to BT, OBS, Verizon and AT&T to respond.
- Bringing scale–TEM isn’t about just domestic services anymore. Most companies want to manage their services globally, and the current crop of small TEM vendors struggle with this. Vodafone brings a global scale to the operations both to cover more regions as well as support larger organizations with more complex needs.
- Applications vs. Managed Service/BPO–TEM isn’t about running an application anymore, it’s about managed services and outsourcing. Today many of the TEM providers have little experience in this area. Vodafone brings a large outsourcing capability to the table with TEM. This will also help evolve from basic TEM services in Europe where Vodafone has its customer strength.
TEM is going through some massive changes. In the end TEM providers that can scale globally and provide managed mobility services, including the novation of carrier contracts, are the ones to succeed here. Being able to sell and manage telecom services globally is the only way this industry will survive–but that does mean less space for the smaller guys. The time has come for continued consolidation and the eventual maturity of the TEM marketplace.
Category: M&A TEM Tags:
by Phillip Redman | September 29, 2010 | 9 Comments
It used to be that everyone wanted the smallest. Phone that is. The race to reduce the size and weight was started by the Motorola StarTAC. Everyone wanted (and had) one. Even smaller and lighter phones came out. But that’s ended. Now there’s a race to the biggest. Many of the almost dozen new tablets coming out are less like PCs and more like smartphones because of their small size. Many of the new tablets coming out are about 7″ long by 2″ or 3″ wide–as exemplified by RIM’s PlayBook it announced Monday or Dell’s Streak it announced last month. The manufacturers want them to fall under the tablet category, but they are really too small to be tablets. In my opinion, the tablet is moving to become a PC without the hard keyboard–so a soft keyboard is needed. For that 10″ is the minimum. These devices 7″ or smaller are really big smartphones. RIM CEO Mike Lazaridis even implied that in his speech on Monday saying RIM customers have been asking them to “amplify the BlackBerry.” I’m OK with that, to each his own. In fact I wouldn’t mind seeing the iPhone get a little bigger by an inch on each side. It would be easier to use but still simple to carry in a pocket or purse. And that is the key here.
Real tablets are moving to replace notebook PCs for some, one day. The functionality is not there yet today. I know, I have been using an Apple iPad for two months now. It’s a great connected device, but not as good when not connected to the network. To support real mobility it needs to have better offline functionality. To be a better PC it needs a whole lot of things like increased memory, USB slot, faster processor, Windows application compatibility etc. If it had the same functionality of my work PC in a slim and light form factor, I’d dump the hard keyboard in a second. But Apple and others are not there yet. In the end, there are going to be many attempts at finding the right shape and size of smartphones and tablets–and a lot of failed products. But those thinking anything 7″ and below is a tablet are wrong, it’s just a really big phone.
Category: Apple iPhone mobile phones Tablet Tags:
