Nick Jones

It’s sometimes easier to understand the process by which the future is created, than to predict specific events in the future. And I like the easy option. My wife calls is laziness, I call it efficient use of resources. So one of the things I try to watch is the zeitgeist, the spirit of the times, the prevailing social context. The zeitgeist underlies and influences decisions that people make, and if you identify such social drivers you get clues about how customers and industries may behave. I’m a big fan of the imprecise science of zeitgeist watching, and occasionally Gartner even lets me step back from mobile issues to give presentations on the topic.

This isn’t just a personal fad. Back in 2005 there was a great article in Harvard Business review entitled “Zeitgeist Leadership” by Anthony Mayo and Nitin Nohria. There the authors commented that “an understanding of the zeitgeist and its implications has played a critical but unheralded role in some of the greatest business victories of all time”.

I think 2009 may see some shifts in the zeitgeist. I wouldn’t be surprised to see people become more cautious and suspicious and head back to basics. Less interest in fancy features, more focus on reliable basic services. Practicality and usefulness will be valued, rather than being looked on as boring safe and unexciting.  Simple-to-understand products and services will be appreciated. If the handset manufacturers see things the same way then my personal desire to see a few more exciting and iconic handsets may not be satisfied in 2009. But I can wait.