Nick Jones

So Sanjay Jha has annoyed Microsoft, he talked in public about Windows Mobile 6.5. Thanks Sanjay, I can now mention the topic in my blog. Windows mobile is a huge problem for Microsoft at the moment. It’s losing market share; it dropped to #3 in the smartphone market in Q2 2008, falling behind arch-rivals RIM. It could drop another place or two by H1 2009. The next releases of Windows Mobile: 6.5 and what I’m guessing will be called 7.0 are Microsoft’s last chance to succeed in this market. Today Windows Mobile is a corporate platform, not a consumer platform, teens don’t beg for a Windows Mobile device. Most of them don’t even know what Windows Mobile is. If Microsoft and its OEMs can’t get consumers enthusiastic about Windows Mobile before the end of 2009 I think they will have lost the opportunity forever. Symbian, Android, iPhone and maybe even RIM will be too far ahead. Would Steve Balmer continue to spend money on a product that couldn’t get to a better position than #5 in its market? I certainly wouldn’t.

So, the Windows Mobile releases in 2009 will be critical. Microsoft aren’t dumb, they see the problem as clearly as we do. And they might try some really radical things to fix it. We have some interesting scenarios about what might happen here and we’re happy to share them with clients, so call us. And keep a close eye on the smartphone marketplace because it’s going to get really interesting in 2009. My guess is that in the long term (a few years) there will be room for about 3 major smartphone platforms, we have 5 today, so there will be blood on the floor.