We are working on the Hype Cycle for Application Development here and Project Level Agile is pretty close to the trough of disillusionment. While this can seem like the end of agile, it is a normal part of any IT trend that is going mainstream. The early days of any trend are full of promise, followed by a level of hype that the trend is going to be a silver bullet that will solve all problems.
Of course no new trend can meet these expectations, and the trough of disillusionment follows when people realize that this is not a silver bullet. Agile is following this pattern. A few years ago agile was going to be the revolution that solved all of IT’s problems.
There is a common description of agile that can be paraphrased as “Agile is like exercise, most people who claim to be doing it but most are not and most of the ones that are doing it are doing it wrong” (I think the original and potentially inappropriate version of this metaphor appeared first on http://www.thehackerchickblog.com). The people who claim to do agile without understand agile and the ones that are doing agile wrong will continue to provide plenty of ammunition for the agile critics.
The reality is agile works very well in some organizations and has challenges in organizations where the corporate culture does not support it. The long term trend is agile is working well in more and more companies, so the future of agile is still promising.