The recovery is among the hottest topics in the trade press and among pundits as sentiment has shifted. Now its hip for analysts and others to talk up the economy, proclaim that the end of recession is near and that things will get better.
Conditions are improving, but the early signs are that it will happen in a different way than 2003. Indications from people on the ground is that while things are getting better, they will not provide the ‘pop’ required to create a “V” shaped recovery. Few CIO’s and executives see conditions in 2010 returning to their 2008 levels. A majority sees stability and some growth.
Consumer, employment and capital spending figures seem to indicate the same. Debit card transaction rates are growing, credit card transactions remain off their previous year level even during the Christmas shopping season. Consumer credit figures showed a decline for the 9th straight month as the savings rate increases. Commercial credit remains tight.
While things on Wall Street look rosy, things on Main Street are different.
There will be a recovery, but it will be not be across the board or all at the same time. Different industries and geographies will recover at different rates or even at all in 2010.
The recovery will not be a macro economic “V” or “W” or “U” or even an “L” instead each industry and company seems to be experiencing their own recovery curve. While in the aggregate that will spell recovery, on the street, in the office, plant and home is where it matters – things will be different for everyone.
We had a financial crisis – a panic of sorts like they used to have in the 1800’s. Using fiscal and monetary stimulus we have spent our way to stability and are turning the corner. Those bills will need to be paid, including a U.S. Healthcare mandate that will not increase the deficit but will raise taxes, massive changes to public sector spending in Europe and among State and Local governments in the U.S.
The receding tide of the 2009 recession lowered all boats. However, the opposite is unlikely. You will have to “right your own ship” making recovery something we experience individually at the personal, career, company, country and industry level. While we all went down together, we will recovery by our own sweat, tough decisions and resolve. That is what we should be talking about at the same time as we look forward to the recovery.
What are you seeing in your company, your industry?
What are you talking about?
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