Comments on: The Lack of Wisdom of Crowds http://blogs.gartner.com/john_pescatore/2008/11/21/the-lack-of-wisdom-of-crowds/ A member of the Gartner Blog Network Sat, 04 Feb 2012 17:10:54 +0000 hourly 1 http://wordpress.org/?v=3.0.4 By: John Pescatore http://blogs.gartner.com/john_pescatore/2008/11/21/the-lack-of-wisdom-of-crowds/comment-page-1/#comment-144 John Pescatore Fri, 21 Nov 2008 21:50:25 +0000 http://blogs.gartner.com/john_pescatore/?p=238#comment-144 If you start handpicking the "crowd," then it isn't a crowd anymore. Diversity and independence, sure -that's a crowd. That's the crowd that leaps to overinflated expectations, and falls into the trough of disillusionment - the same crowd that drives market bubbles, the same crowd that falls for hoaxes, the same crowd that believes Daylight Savings Time reduces energy use despite constant studies showing the opposite. A social community is just a gathering of people with something in common - bounded that way, there are similar demonstrations of lack of wisdom. Soccer match attendees come to mind... If you start handpicking the “crowd,” then it isn’t a crowd anymore. Diversity and independence, sure -that’s a crowd. That’s the crowd that leaps to overinflated expectations, and falls into the trough of disillusionment – the same crowd that drives market bubbles, the same crowd that falls for hoaxes, the same crowd that believes Daylight Savings Time reduces energy use despite constant studies showing the opposite.

A social community is just a gathering of people with something in common – bounded that way, there are similar demonstrations of lack of wisdom. Soccer match attendees come to mind…

]]> By: Anthony Bradley http://blogs.gartner.com/john_pescatore/2008/11/21/the-lack-of-wisdom-of-crowds/comment-page-1/#comment-143 Anthony Bradley Fri, 21 Nov 2008 15:44:38 +0000 http://blogs.gartner.com/john_pescatore/?p=238#comment-143 What is a crowd? Surowiecki in "The Wisdom of Crowds" and Howe in "Crowdsourcing" both make it clear that diversity and independence are critical to the wisdom of the crowd. "Wisdom of the Crowds" does not mean that ALL crowds are wise. When members of a crowd begin influencing each other en mass then the wisdom of crowds turns to mob mentality. This is critcal to successful social applications and gaining business value from communities. Not all crowds are created equal and understanding the crowd and how it might evolve is a major success factor. What crowd are you talking about; homeowners, home buyers, stock buyers, stock brokers, lenders? A crowd, for the purposes of wisdom, must be bounded and defined. This really isn't a "Wisdom of the Crowds" scenario. There is no crowd. Macroeconomic theory is much more appropriate here. What is a crowd? Surowiecki in “The Wisdom of Crowds” and Howe in “Crowdsourcing” both make it clear that diversity and independence are critical to the wisdom of the crowd. “Wisdom of the Crowds” does not mean that ALL crowds are wise. When members of a crowd begin influencing each other en mass then the wisdom of crowds turns to mob mentality.

This is critcal to successful social applications and gaining business value from communities. Not all crowds are created equal and understanding the crowd and how it might evolve is a major success factor.

What crowd are you talking about; homeowners, home buyers, stock buyers, stock brokers, lenders? A crowd, for the purposes of wisdom, must be bounded and defined.

This really isn’t a “Wisdom of the Crowds” scenario. There is no crowd. Macroeconomic theory is much more appropriate here.

]]> By: Greg Young http://blogs.gartner.com/john_pescatore/2008/11/21/the-lack-of-wisdom-of-crowds/comment-page-1/#comment-142 Greg Young Fri, 21 Nov 2008 14:25:58 +0000 http://blogs.gartner.com/john_pescatore/?p=238#comment-142 David Freedman piublished one of the best known counter arguments to the Crowd/Wisdom piece - The Idiocy of Crowds http://www.freedman.com/idiocy.html David Freedman piublished one of the best known counter arguments to the Crowd/Wisdom piece – The Idiocy of Crowds

http://www.freedman.com/idiocy.html

]]> By: Andrew http://blogs.gartner.com/john_pescatore/2008/11/21/the-lack-of-wisdom-of-crowds/comment-page-1/#comment-140 Andrew Fri, 21 Nov 2008 10:36:09 +0000 http://blogs.gartner.com/john_pescatore/?p=238#comment-140 The hype cycle is explored even further, with lots of examples, in the new book by Gartner analysts Jackie Fenn & Mark Raskino called "Mastering the Hype Cycle". Here's a link for more information www.gartner.com/hypecycle The hype cycle is explored even further, with lots of examples, in the new book by Gartner analysts Jackie Fenn & Mark Raskino called “Mastering the Hype Cycle”. Here’s a link for more information http://www.gartner.com/hypecycle

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