Jim SinurThere is an interesting trend that I have detected in my recent inquiries. In the beginning of the downturn, my clients were looking for coping mechanisms only, but something is different in this down turn. I am old enough to remember the pain of the 70s down turn and it was purely sticking to basics and tactics for a long time. It wasn’t until the early 80s that strategy made sense again. This down turn is different. Here are two observations for you to ponder and comment on going forward. First my clients want to be prepared to sense shifts ahead of time to be proactive. Secondly, my clients are looking to have a strategy that allows them to go beyond just thriving.
Sensing a Wobbly Top:
I have been with Gartner for over 15 years now and I am getting a repeated set of questions around being proactive that I have not heard before. I think it is more than organizations preparing themselves for recovery. I believe we are in the early pre-recovery stages with organization progress despite higher levels of unemployment.. Many organizations were blind-sided by the events of the last year or so and want to avoid big surprises. I have had more calls on scenario planning and sensing signals of change and responding to them. There is an increased interest in scenario planning and identifying the early signals and patterns. See the following posts
http://blogs.gartner.com/jim_sinur/2009/01/02/scenario-planning-is-no-longer-optional/
Beyond Surviving and Thriving:
I am getting a sense that organizations want to make improvements, so that they are hitting full stride when the turnaround gets significant tractions. I am seeing companies doing strategy planning and business optimization leveraging business planning services and tools that can support business sensitivity. Examples include Business Genetics, Decision Management Solutions, The Hobson Group, Nimbus, Process Master and Vision Wave. If I left someone else out, I’m sure I will get comments. See the following posts:
http://blogs.gartner.com/jim_sinur/2009/05/21/the-power-of-visibility-with-bpm-enabled-processes/
http://blogs.gartner.com/jim_sinur/2008/10/14/is-anyone-thinking-about-managing-agility/
There is something brewing out there that is putting a premium on right thinking and strategy planning in many circles. While I have seen this kind of thinking in the EU in the past, I am also seeing it in the U.S, and Asia. This is encouraging to me and I hope this becomes a habit that keeps going and gets updated consistent with the tempo for change that agile processes support,
Category: BPM Business Process Improvement Business Rules Green Optimization Simulation Tags: BPM, Business Process Improvement, Business Rules, Green, Optimization, Simulation
3 responses so far ↓
1 Ian Gotts July 7, 2009 at 7:43 am
A short sharp recession would have allowed a little blood lettign pain (cost cuttin, redundancy), but the current recession may be W-shaped, bath-shaped or even longer. Quick fixes won’t work.
There are some fundamental corrections in many industries which are likely to be permenant. For examples, the auto industry had massive over-demand exacerbated by cars lasting longer. This was an accident waiting to happen.
This is forcing companies to think longer term and revisit their business models, which has got to be healthy. And cirtically it is being driven form the top which means strategic thinking driving down into process change.
2 Guy W Wallace July 11, 2009 at 10:05 am
If your reference to The Hobson Group was about Brian and Kelly – then you’ll perhaps want to look at the source for their methods and tools: Guy W. Wallace of EPPIC Inc. and his books (especially lean-ISD – endorsed by the late Geary A. Rummler who also designed the book cover) and articles/columns: such as the BPTrends quarterly columns on Enterprise Process Performance Improvement. They were my employees of mine and I developed and ceritifed both of them in my ISD and HPT methods back in the 1990s.
3 Mark February 11, 2010 at 8:27 am
Many of the tools mentioned model based on either on top-down views of enterprise architectures, or enable the capture of fragemented one-dimensional process flows. Models tend to follow one or two unit flows, with some drill-down, roll-up capability.
BPMN is going some way to making better models
However, I believe that the modelling platform that will take off here is going to enable:
– a combined Top-down and bottom-up approach – explained well in Exhibit 4-7 of E&Y’s Guide to Total Cost Management
– multi-dimensional activity networks – e.g. Account Opening activity is a node where the Account lifecycle flow and the Client lifecycle flow meet
Any modelling effort that doesn’t recognise the true nature of business activity as a network of inter-connected tasks, some performed by people, some by systems, will result in fragemented, or unilateral information, the value of which will be short-lived and limited to those who captured it.