Comments on: Scenario Planning is No Longer Optional http://blogs.gartner.com/jim_sinur/2009/01/02/scenario-planning-is-no-longer-optional/ A member of the Gartner Blog Network Fri, 20 Nov 2009 13:06:56 -0500 http://wordpress.org/?v=2.8.4 hourly 1 By: Peter Kennedy http://blogs.gartner.com/jim_sinur/2009/01/02/scenario-planning-is-no-longer-optional/comment-page-1/#comment-1700 Peter Kennedy Thu, 16 Jul 2009 01:10:00 +0000 http://blogs.gartner.com/jim_sinur/2009/01/02/scenario-planning-is-no-longer-optional/#comment-1700 Those lucky firms that entered the economic recession in a relatively strong position may enjoy the freedom to now engage in long-term strategic planning a la scenarios. But for the majority of firms not as fortunate, the temptation is to "hunker down" in a nearly perfectly reactive mode, waiting for the market to turn up or for the fog to at least lift a little. I believe there is a valuable middle ground between the two extremes: Using 1-3 year mini-scenarios to evaluate risks, stress-test current plans, prioritize decisions and, yes, identify opportunities ahead of the competition. The idea is not to predict whether we're headed to a U-shaped recovery or a L-shaped stagnation or any other variant...but rather to rigorously explore all plausible short- to medium-term outcomes for the economy and all meaningful sectors within it. Take all these plausible "futures" seriously. Think hard about how each scenario challenges (or reaffirms) your current plans and direction. Find common threads and elements and let them inform how you act. Most importantly, make this a senior leadership exercise, so everyone "gets it" and feels ownership over the result (that may make many feel uncomfortable, in a healthy kind of way). Those lucky firms that entered the economic recession in a relatively strong position may enjoy the freedom to now engage in long-term strategic planning a la scenarios. But for the majority of firms not as fortunate, the temptation is to “hunker down” in a nearly perfectly reactive mode, waiting for the market to turn up or for the fog to at least lift a little. I believe there is a valuable middle ground between the two extremes: Using 1-3 year mini-scenarios to evaluate risks, stress-test current plans, prioritize decisions and, yes, identify opportunities ahead of the competition. The idea is not to predict whether we’re headed to a U-shaped recovery or a L-shaped stagnation or any other variant…but rather to rigorously explore all plausible short- to medium-term outcomes for the economy and all meaningful sectors within it. Take all these plausible “futures” seriously. Think hard about how each scenario challenges (or reaffirms) your current plans and direction. Find common threads and elements and let them inform how you act. Most importantly, make this a senior leadership exercise, so everyone “gets it” and feels ownership over the result (that may make many feel uncomfortable, in a healthy kind of way).

]]> By: Why Isn’t Strategy a Bad Word in Down Times? http://blogs.gartner.com/jim_sinur/2009/01/02/scenario-planning-is-no-longer-optional/comment-page-1/#comment-1628 Why Isn’t Strategy a Bad Word in Down Times? Wed, 01 Jul 2009 22:28:03 +0000 http://blogs.gartner.com/jim_sinur/2009/01/02/scenario-planning-is-no-longer-optional/#comment-1628 [...] http://blogs.gartner.com/jim_sinur/2009/01/02/scenario-planning-is-no-longer-optional/ [...] [...] http://blogs.gartner.com/jim_sinur/2009/01/02/scenario-planning-is-no-longer-optional/ [...]

]]> By: Intelligent Decisions Go Beyond the Normal Ups and Downs http://blogs.gartner.com/jim_sinur/2009/01/02/scenario-planning-is-no-longer-optional/comment-page-1/#comment-1552 Intelligent Decisions Go Beyond the Normal Ups and Downs Mon, 15 Jun 2009 20:36:58 +0000 http://blogs.gartner.com/jim_sinur/2009/01/02/scenario-planning-is-no-longer-optional/#comment-1552 [...] http://blogs.gartner.com/jim_sinur/2009/01/02/scenario-planning-is-no-longer-optional/ [...] [...] http://blogs.gartner.com/jim_sinur/2009/01/02/scenario-planning-is-no-longer-optional/ [...]

]]> By: chat sohbet http://blogs.gartner.com/jim_sinur/2009/01/02/scenario-planning-is-no-longer-optional/comment-page-1/#comment-1389 chat sohbet Thu, 07 May 2009 17:43:34 +0000 http://blogs.gartner.com/jim_sinur/2009/01/02/scenario-planning-is-no-longer-optional/#comment-1389 Yeah, I have to comment on that too- what was with the wall? Yeah, I have to comment on that too- what was with the wall?

]]> By: Paul McMenamin http://blogs.gartner.com/jim_sinur/2009/01/02/scenario-planning-is-no-longer-optional/comment-page-1/#comment-1342 Paul McMenamin Mon, 27 Apr 2009 16:10:42 +0000 http://blogs.gartner.com/jim_sinur/2009/01/02/scenario-planning-is-no-longer-optional/#comment-1342 It all rings true in hindsight. is it that those who practice effective scenario planning do so making effective decisions and moving forward, but not publicizing the fact. And others have tried and been unsuccessful for any number of reasons abandon the practice and look for something else. Are the current practitioners reluctant to make it known about their use, as they find it too advantageous? Are those who provide feeble responses plainly unaware of the possible benefit, or just don't have the time. This looks like they can't "sharpen the saw". It all rings true in hindsight. is it that those who practice effective scenario planning do so making effective decisions and moving forward, but not publicizing the fact. And others have tried and been unsuccessful for any number of reasons abandon the practice and look for something else.

Are the current practitioners reluctant to make it known about their use, as they find it too advantageous? Are those who provide feeble responses plainly unaware of the possible benefit, or just don’t have the time. This looks like they can’t “sharpen the saw”.

]]> By: Processes Enable Early Warning for Emerging Business Scenarios http://blogs.gartner.com/jim_sinur/2009/01/02/scenario-planning-is-no-longer-optional/comment-page-1/#comment-1279 Processes Enable Early Warning for Emerging Business Scenarios Tue, 31 Mar 2009 10:52:10 +0000 http://blogs.gartner.com/jim_sinur/2009/01/02/scenario-planning-is-no-longer-optional/#comment-1279 [...] scenarios that have well thought out responses that may leverage policy and rule changes (see http://blogs.gartner.com/jim_sinur/2009/01/02/scenario-planning-is-no-longer-optional/). Organization might have probes into market indices and watch the behaviors of customers, partners [...] [...] scenarios that have well thought out responses that may leverage policy and rule changes (see http://blogs.gartner.com/jim_sinur/2009/01/02/scenario-planning-is-no-longer-optional/). Organization might have probes into market indices and watch the behaviors of customers, partners [...]

]]> By: Adam Gordon http://blogs.gartner.com/jim_sinur/2009/01/02/scenario-planning-is-no-longer-optional/comment-page-1/#comment-1251 Adam Gordon Thu, 19 Mar 2009 19:44:29 +0000 http://blogs.gartner.com/jim_sinur/2009/01/02/scenario-planning-is-no-longer-optional/#comment-1251 Totally agree. Problem in widespread scenario planning adoption has been poor quality, particularly in mixing up visionary (desired) scenario building and what-could-actually-happen scenario building. This is part of a bigger problem of mixing up future-anticipating and future-influencing methods in thinking ahead. More on this in "Future Savvy," Amacom Press, 2009 http://tinyurl.com/5mdu2c http://www.futuresavvy.net Totally agree. Problem in widespread scenario planning adoption has been poor quality, particularly in mixing up visionary (desired) scenario building and what-could-actually-happen scenario building. This is part of a bigger problem of mixing up future-anticipating and future-influencing methods in thinking ahead. More on this in “Future Savvy,” Amacom Press, 2009 http://tinyurl.com/5mdu2c http://www.futuresavvy.net

]]> By: Scenario Testing, Stress Testing and Decision Management » JT on EDM http://blogs.gartner.com/jim_sinur/2009/01/02/scenario-planning-is-no-longer-optional/comment-page-1/#comment-1139 Scenario Testing, Stress Testing and Decision Management » JT on EDM Thu, 12 Feb 2009 20:38:39 +0000 http://blogs.gartner.com/jim_sinur/2009/01/02/scenario-planning-is-no-longer-optional/#comment-1139 [...] management was one of my predictions for 2009 and Jim Sinur wrote a nice piece on this too - Scenario Planning is No Longer Optional. This entry was posted on Thursday, January 15th, 2009 at 2:25 pm and written by James Taylor. It [...] [...] management was one of my predictions for 2009 and Jim Sinur wrote a nice piece on this too – Scenario Planning is No Longer Optional. This entry was posted on Thursday, January 15th, 2009 at 2:25 pm and written by James Taylor. It [...]

]]> By: James Taylor http://blogs.gartner.com/jim_sinur/2009/01/02/scenario-planning-is-no-longer-optional/comment-page-1/#comment-905 James Taylor Fri, 09 Jan 2009 04:39:37 +0000 http://blogs.gartner.com/jim_sinur/2009/01/02/scenario-planning-is-no-longer-optional/#comment-905 Interesting post Jim and I completely agree Check out http://www.ebizq.net/blogs/decision_management/2009/01/scenario_testing_stress_testin.php for my POV JT Interesting post Jim and I completely agree
Check out http://www.ebizq.net/blogs/decision_management/2009/01/scenario_testing_stress_testin.php for my POV

JT

]]> By: Jim Sinur http://blogs.gartner.com/jim_sinur/2009/01/02/scenario-planning-is-no-longer-optional/comment-page-1/#comment-878 Jim Sinur Mon, 05 Jan 2009 21:33:30 +0000 http://blogs.gartner.com/jim_sinur/2009/01/02/scenario-planning-is-no-longer-optional/#comment-878 There are a number of ana;ytical approaches to abstract complexity including simulation and other optimization forms. I like your approach as a front line approach with the addition of other back stops. Thanks There are a number of ana;ytical approaches to abstract complexity including simulation and other optimization forms. I like your approach as a front line approach with the addition of other back stops. Thanks

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