Hype Cycle for Emerging Technologies, 2010

Before I dive into this hype cycle in more detail, I want to point out that although the emerging technologies hype cycle tends to be one of the most visible hype cycles we publish, it’s by no means the only one. We have published over 75 hype cycles so far for 2010, and they’re still coming, along with over 2000 individual technology entries with definitions, recommendations and other info.

Back to the emerging technologies hype cycle specifically – we saw a number of themes arising this year, including:

• User experience and interaction, including devices such as media tablets (iPads etc) and 3D flat-panel TVs and displays, and interaction styles such as gesture recognition and tangible user interfaces
• Augmented reality, context and the real-world Web. Augmented reality is a hot topic in the mobile space, with platforms and services on iPhone and Android platforms, and it represents the next generation as location-aware applications move toward the plateau. Other elements such as 4G standard, sensor networks and context delivery architecture are evolving more slowly, but they will play a key role in expanding the impact of IT in the physical world.
• Data-driven decisions. The quantity and variety of digital data continue to explode, along with the opportunities to analyze and gain insight from new sources such as location information and social media. The techniques themselves, such as predictive analytics, are relatively well established in many cases; the value resides in applying them in new applications such as social analytics and sentiment analysis.
• Cloud-computing implications. Cloud computing is just topping the peak, and private cloud computing is still rising. Cloud/Web platforms are also featured, along with mobile application stores, to acknowledge the growing interest in platforms for application development and delivery.

Hype cycle aficionados will notice that technologies often seem to “drop off” the emerging technologies hype cycle after a year or two. This is simply because we have finite room on the graphic, but doesn’t mean that we think those technologies are not worthy of further coverage. In most cases they continue to be tracked on one of the many other hype cycles we produce.

If you’re a Gartner client you can see more details in the Hype Cycle for Emerging Technologies 2010 as well as access the other hype cycles in the Hype Cycle Special Report.

First , we agree, from Lars Rasmussen’s viewpoint,  the internal project is likely to be following the hype cycle.  Big projects do this because there is a collective social reaction from the  development team and internal management. It is one of  initial enthusiasm followed by the dawning realization of all the complexities and things to be worked through, including intial customer response.

However when looking at Wave from the outside, and the buyer point of view as an innovative product in a market, it is worth us making some additional observations.

1)  The vast majority of technology innovations do make it through the hype cycle

2) Individual products, might not – or might be radically altered as they pass through the trough of disillusionment.

We often use ‘search engines’ to illustrate this point that it is really a technology category that moves through the market hype cycle – rather than an individual product (or vendor).  Back in 1996 Alta Vista and Yahoo were lead players at the peak of inflated expectations for the then newly developing technology of ‘web search engines’. But it was Google that really drove that technology out of the trough, up the slope of enlightenment and onto the plateau of productivity (and profitability). So search engines made it through the full hype cycle (and how!).. but Alta Vista didn’t. Using a more contemporary example, when people mention Twitter – it falls into the technology called ‘microblogging ‘ (along with Yammer, Facebook status updates and others). It’s microblogging that will move through the full market hype cycle.

It’s interesting that so far there isn’t really a strong generic market category name for the technology of which Google Wave is an example. Google’s own initial description for Wave was a bit cumbersome  – a new web application for real-time communication and collaboration.  My analyst colleague Ray Valdes offers the shorter unified real-time collaboration. But this lack of clear naming is not surprising – distinct emerging technology category names often do take a while to form. The earlier stages of the hype cycle are full of market confusion – including terminology.

The underlying ideas within the innovation that people like, find useful, refine, measure, extend and  integrate with other things will most probably reach the plateau. However as some have conjectured – Wave as a distinct product does not necessarily have to survive (please note I am not offering a Gartner prediction here).  Elements of Wave might be swept up and incorporated into other Google offerings – but that might still constitute success for the technology as a category.

Some of this is certainly focused around augmented reality, as organizations examine how they might be able to use the cameras on mobile devices to drive image recognition as an additional cue for augmenting their view of the real world. Real time video feeds or snapshots of places and items can be compared against a database of images to identify the place or object and deliver relevant information as an overlay on top of the image feed. Use of location and compass information can limit the search space to a manageable level.

Microsoft Surface is another topic where we’ve been receiving a small but growing number of inquiries. Most of the interest is around how to use the buzz associated with this still-novel interface to drive brand image in hospitality and retail environments, from Barclay’s Bank to the iBar – a 10 foot long bar which reacts to the bottles and glasses and anything else placed on top of it (I’m feeling the need for a field trip to check that one out…)

It’s good to see these ideas emerging from niche research into real commercialization – we’ve been stuck in the WIMP interface paradigm for over three decades now. Our human computer interaction hype cycle (see below) was featured in New Scientist and Fast Company recently – perhaps an indication that the field of HCI is itself rising toward the Peak.

Human Computer Interaction Hype Cycle for 2009

(Note that this human computer interaction hype cycle is NOT the same as the emerging technologies hype cycle – we publish over 70 different hype cycles each year.)

Now available to clients via our
Hype Cycles 2009 special report landing page:

Hype Cycle for Consumer Mobile Applications
Hype Cycle for Consumer Technologies
Hype Cycle for Contact Center Infrastructure
Hype Cycle for Content Management
Hype Cycle for Context-Aware Computing
Hype Cycle for Data Center Power and Cooling Technologies
Hype Cycle for Data Management
Hype Cycle for E-commerce technologies (September)
Hype Cycle for Emerging Technologies
Hype Cycle for Enterprise Communications Applications
Hype Cycle for Enterprise Information Management
Hype Cycle for Global Consumer Communications Services
Hype Cycle for Human-Computer Interaction
Hype Cycle for Identity and Access Management Technologies
Hype Cycle for Infrastructure Protection
Hype Cycle for Master Data Management
Hype Cycle for Mobile Device Technologies
Hype Cycle for Networking and Communications
Hype Cycle for PC Technologies
Hype Cycle for Photovoltaic Solar Energy
Hype Cycle for Printing Markets and Management
Hype Cycle for Semiconductors
Hype Cycle for Server Technologies
Hype Cycle for Smart Grid Technologies
Hype Cycle for Social Software
Hype Cycle for Storage Hardware Technologies
Hype Cycle for Storage Software Technologies
Hype Cycle for Telemedicine
Hype Cycle for the High-Performance Workplace
Hype Cycle for Web and User Interaction Technologies
Hype Cycle for Wireless Devices, Software and Services
Hype Cycle for Application Architecture
Hype Cycle for Application Development
Hype Cycle for Application Infrastructure
Hype Cycle for Application Infrastructure
Hype Cycle for Business Continuity Management
Hype Cycle for Business Intelligence and Performance Management
Hype Cycle for Business Process Management
Hype Cycle for Business Process Outsourcing
Hype Cycle for Cloud Computing
Hype Cycle for Consulting and System Integration, 2009
Hype Cycle for CRM Customer Service and Field Service
Hype Cycle for CRM Marketing Applications
Hype Cycle for CRM Sales
Hype Cycle for Data and Application Security
Hype Cycle for Governance, Risk and Compliance Technologies
Hype Cycle for Human Capital Management Software
Hype Cycle for ICT in India
Hype Cycle for IT Operations Management
Hype Cycle for IT Outsourcing
Hype Cycle for Manufacturing Product Lifecycle Management and Production
Hype Cycle for Open-Source Software
Hype Cycle for Procurement Applications
Hype Cycle for Real-Time Infrastructure
Hype Cycle for Software as a Service
Hype Cycle for Supply Chain Management
Hype Cycle for Virtualization
Hype Cycle for Automotive Demand Chain and Supply Chain Technologies
Hype Cycle for Banking and Investment Services Customer Technologies
Hype Cycle for Banking and Investment Services Operations Technologies
Hype Cycle for Communications Service Provider Infrastructure
Hype Cycle for Communications Service Provider Operations
Hype Cycle for Consumer Goods
Hype Cycle for Education
Hype Cycle for Financial Services Payment Systems
Hype Cycle for Government Transformation
Hype Cycle for Healthcare Payers
Hype Cycle for Healthcare Provider Applications and Systems
Hype Cycle for Healthcare Providers Technologies and Standards
Hype Cycle for Life Insurance
Hype Cycle for Media Broadcasting
Hype Cycle for Media Industry Advertising
Hype Cycle for Media Industry Content
Hype Cycle for P&C Insurance
Hype Cycle for Retail Technologies
Hype Cycle for the Telecommunications Industry
Hype Cycle for Transportation
Hype Cycle for Utility Industry IT and Business Processes
Hype Cycle for Utility Industry Operational and Energy Technologies
Hype Cycle for Vehicle-Centric Information and Communication Technologies (Vehicle ICT)

We’re also seeing a growing body of well-informed discussion and debate around types of augmented reality and their relative maturity. In Augmented Vision and the Decade of Ubiquity, Robert Rice separates out four levels of AR, distinguishing the current batch of animation-enhanced video feedbacksystems (eg from Total Immersion) from those like Mobilitzy’s Wikitude that stay closer to the original vision of using knowledge of the user’s location and other context to superimpose relevant information. In the Augmented Reality Hype Cycle, Maarten of SPRXMobile positions the four styles and other additions on a hype cycle chart, triggering some interesting debate about capabilities such as dumb vs smart augmentation (ie does the system deliver a static piece of information linked to an object or place, or does it use context to deliver dynamic links).

This level of discourse, along with the beginnings of the commercial services, indicates that the topic is climbing higher toward the Peak of Inflated Expectations. We’ll shortly be updating the hype cycle entry for augmented reality for this summer’s Hype Cycle Special Report and we’ll move it along accordingly.

Hans Uszkoreit gives a history of the machine translation hype cycle , concluding (hoping?) that the technology is finally on the slope of enlightenment. He also points out insightfully that this field is one where the fractal nature of the hype cycle may come into play: “Perhaps in fact the Hype Cycle is fractal, each slope containing smaller mini peaks and troughs within the overall pattern. It may prove hard to distinguish clearly between those old “inflated expectations” and the current widespread “hype” that there will be genuine productivity when Enlightenment is attained and new projects come to fruition within the (proverbial) next five years. Or to put it more bluntly, will MT ever grow into a visible business over and beyond its role as a technology add-on?”

Ryan Saghir also gives a brief history of satellite radio’s journey through the hype cycle, and triggers some lively debate about whether Sirius XM is in the trough of disillusionment.

Are there new domains you would like to see us add to this list? We would be interested to hear.

Remember hype cycles cover technologies rather than vendors and the domains are often thematic e.g. ‘government transformation’, not just markets.

Also to Martin Veitch at Network World for an excellent review of the book with the rather humbling last paragraph:

JG at spatiallyrelevant.org has created an interesting Twitter hype cycle tracking a person’s reactions as he or she develops familiarity with the tool, showing the path from “What is Twitter?”, through “I might be able to make money at this” and on to the Trough of Disillusionment with “Nope, not going to make money”.  The Slope of Enlightenment is characterized by ”I might develop some real cool relationships” and eventually onto ”I’m not sure how I communicated via email”, with some other fun points in between. (Thanks to PatMcGrew’s tweet for pointing this one out

Which leads to the question – when a single company or Web site becomes synonymous with a new capability, is the company itself more likely to be subject to the hype cycle effect? Certainly the earlier inflated levels of hype and expectations around Second Life have contributed to a Trough of Disillusionment for virtual worlds in general. Press coverage morphed from cover stories on Virtual World, Real Money  to laments about Second Life’s Real World Problems. Google Trends shows a clear waning of interest in searches for “Second Life” since its peak in the first half of 2007. Google has announced it is shutting down its own virtual world, Lively.

Our expectation is that Second Life’s high profile means that it will continue to track - in fact define – the overall virtual worlds hype cycle for the next couple of years. Beyond that timeframe, it is open season. The precedents are mixed. Although the Palm Pilot was the device that launched PDAs out of a premature Trough (triggered by the poor quality of the Apple Newton’s handwriting recognition), and although Palm is still hanging in with the Treo, it definitely no longer dominates the category. On the other hand, AOL’s AIM has maintained its leadership position in the US for many years even as others have entered the market.

The uncertain benefits of virtual worlds for a business audience mean that a prolonged Trough is likely as companies explore the real value proposition.  Second Life itself will emerge from the Trough, based on its hard-won experience of what does and doesn’t work in virtual worlds. According to my colleague Steve Prentice, who has been watching the vendors closely:

“The challenge for Linden is to refocus their energies on meeting the needs of an enterprise audience without completely alienating their existing long standing residents.  This will not be an easy path to tread, but the signs are that the new CEO Mark Kingdon understands the requirements and is working hard to reposition Second Life as a platform rather than a destination. The recent collaboration with Rivers Run Red who is offering its Immersive Workspace is a strong move in the right direction, but they need a broader range of enterprise focused applications to convince skeptical business leaders that the old days are behind them and flying body parts are a thing of the past in Second Life.”

However, Second Life hasn’t achieved enough market penetration across a broad enough demographic (including enterprises) to be assured of remaining the defining force that will drive virtual worlds up the Slope of Enlightenment. It may be able to redesign and reinvent itself, but others will also be able to learn from Second Life’s lessons. Our advice to technology adopters in Mastering the Hype Cycle, where we featured Second Life as an example of evaluating capabilities independently of specific products, still holds:

“So, while Second Life may or may not maintain its dominance among virtual worlds, companies that became residents of Second Life to test various uses and benefits have actually been learning not just about this one product but about the broader lessons associated with the virtual worlds.”

What’s interesting of course is to look at the pattern of each previous “technological revolution” to see if it sheds any light on the future of our current one (information and technology). Perez points out that the pattern certainly looks familiar so far: an eruption phase with a rapid growth of core technologies, followed by a frenzy phase consisting of an explosive expansion of infrastructure and financial speculation. In every other technological revolution, the frenetic build out of the infrastructure and the financial bubble that accompanied it was followed by financial collapse – again, sounds familiar. The good news is that, if the model holds true, the next phases (synergy and maturity) are where we’ll start to see the real impact of the technologies on business and society. Just as the car led to social constructs such as suburbs and shopping malls, information technology will continue to transform the way we live and work.

And yes, the hype cycle overlays perfectly onto Perez’s charts of bubbles and crashes and eventual maturity. It seems that we reserve our greatest enthusiasm and financial speculation for anything to do with infrastructure – canals, railways, highways or the Internet. Perhaps it’s no coincidence that the Kondratiev waves span a generation – we need a new set of suckers… I mean speculators, who haven’t seen it all before and are willing to fuel the (seemingly essential) massive, global experimentation of each technological revolution.