Mastering The Hype Cycle

Between them they cover over 1650 technologies.
Now available to clients via our
Hype Cycles 2009 special report landing page:
Hype Cycle for Consumer Mobile Applications
Hype Cycle for Consumer Technologies
Hype Cycle for Contact Center Infrastructure
Hype Cycle for Content Management
Hype Cycle for Context-Aware Computing
Hype Cycle for Data Center Power and Cooling Technologies
Hype Cycle for Data Management
Hype Cycle for E-commerce [...]

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[this post also appears in Mark Raskino's GBN Blog]
I was asked recently by Economist correspondent Ludwig Siegele, whether Chris Anderson’s ‘Long Tail’ is following the Hype Cycle. This might sound like a contrived conjunction of two abstractions but actually, it is a very good question.  The Long Tail is a new management science idea, some [...]

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In a Financial Times online article dated June 2nd, Mr. David Smith – the Chief Investment Director of GAM (part of the Swiss wealth management company Julius Baer) discusses the hedge fund bubble burst of 2008. As part of his analysis he says:
The research group Gartner tried to prove the potentially positive outcomes of bubbles [...]

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At a recent Gartner event I conducted an informal poll of 16 emerging technology managers. The results showed that most were experiencing relative stability in their staffing and funding. Less than 10% had experienced, or were projecting, staff cuts, and half were expecing to grow their staffing and funding levels by 2010. This may be counter to [...]

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We continue to see hype cycles explored in interesting ways beyond the IT industry:
One of my favorite recent reads, which I am still figuring out how to put into action, is Timothy Ferris’s 4-hour Work Week. In the 4-hour Workweek Hype Cycle, “Brick” asks whether the hype cycle applies to the ideas in this very successful book, and [...]

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I have been reading a fascinating piece of academic work published in 2006 by Olavi Uusital of the Tempere Universtity of Technology in Finland and Kjell Grohaug at the Norwegian School of Business and Administration.  In ‘Expectations and Consequences of International Partnership: The Case of Benecol’ they use the Hype Cycle to describe and measure the fortunes of the [...]

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In the 1920s, Russian economist Nikolai Kondratiev described cycles of repeating boom and bust in the global economy, each lasting 50-60 years. Other economists have developed the Kontratiev wave theory in more detail, including Carlotta Perez in her book “Technological Revolutions and Financial Capital: The Dynamics of Bubbles and Golden Ages”. Perez ties the economic [...]

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The World Bank’s PSD blog wonders whether the Hype Cycle applies to microinsurance, observing that microcredit appears to have been passing through one.  We think so yes – the Hype Cycle does apply to this type of market model innovation.  The microcredit ‘invention’ dates back to the work at Grameen Telecom in the early 1990s [...]

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Over the summer, as we prepared for the publication of the book, we noticed many appearances of the Hype Cycle in places outside its normal domain of IT.  We were delighted to see it used by FT journalist Philip Stafford in an article that appeared in the David Blackwell column in May.  In a piece [...]

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No – because retail is a very broad and ongoing activity area. You might see a repeated multi-year up-down business cycle in retail and you will see seasonal cycles but these are not hype cycles.   Yet, with just couple of bounding constraints on this vast business domain we might uncover newer and more innovative business [...]

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