The 2010 Hype Cycle Special Report is out, including the hype cycle for emerging technologies (click through for a legible version):
Before I dive into this hype cycle in more detail, I want to point out that although the emerging technologies hype cycle tends to be one of the most visible hype cycles we publish, it’s by no means the only one. We have published over 75 hype cycles so far for 2010, and they’re still coming, along with over 2000 individual technology entries with definitions, recommendations and other info.
Back to the emerging technologies hype cycle specifically – we saw a number of themes arising this year, including:
- User experience and interaction, including devices such as media tablets (iPads etc) and 3D flat-panel TVs and displays, and interaction styles such as gesture recognition and tangible user interfaces
- Augmented reality, context and the real-world Web. Augmented reality is a hot topic in the mobile space, with platforms and services on iPhone and Android platforms, and it represents the next generation as location-aware applications move toward the plateau. Other elements such as 4G standard, sensor networks and context delivery architecture are evolving more slowly, but they will play a key role in expanding the impact of IT in the physical world.
- Data-driven decisions. The quantity and variety of digital data continue to explode, along with the opportunities to analyze and gain insight from new sources such as location information and social media. The techniques themselves, such as predictive analytics, are relatively well established in many cases; the value resides in applying them in new applications such as social analytics and sentiment analysis.
- Cloud-computing implications. Cloud computing is just topping the peak, and private cloud computing is still rising. Cloud/Web platforms are also featured, along with mobile application stores, to acknowledge the growing interest in platforms for application development and delivery.
Hype cycle aficionados will notice that technologies often seem to “drop off” the emerging technologies hype cycle after a year or two. This is simply because we have finite room on the graphic, but doesn’t mean that we think those technologies are not worthy of further coverage. In most cases they continue to be tracked on one of the many other hype cycles we produce.