Comments on: The Hype Cycle Can’t Be Stopped http://blogs.gartner.com/hypecyclebook/2009/04/21/the-hype-cycle-cant-be-stopped/ How to Choose the Right Innovation at the Right Time Thu, 09 Sep 2010 16:50:26 +0000 hourly 1 http://wordpress.org/?v=3.0.4 By: wannadevelop.com http://blogs.gartner.com/hypecyclebook/2009/04/21/the-hype-cycle-cant-be-stopped/comment-page-1/#comment-394 wannadevelop.com Fri, 24 Apr 2009 04:14:41 +0000 http://blogs.gartner.com/hypecyclebook/?p=564#comment-394 Hype? What hype?? Hype? What hype??

]]> By: Mark Raskino http://blogs.gartner.com/hypecyclebook/2009/04/21/the-hype-cycle-cant-be-stopped/comment-page-1/#comment-391 Mark Raskino Thu, 23 Apr 2009 18:49:20 +0000 http://blogs.gartner.com/hypecyclebook/?p=564#comment-391 Thanks for your questions Paul. We have been observing market adoption of new technologies using this technique since 1995 so it is very well validated by extensive field use. Gartner tracks over 1000 technologies and related innovations this way each year. The fundamental components of the cycle are based on some very basic patterns that few people would disagree with. The work is also built on the research foundations of others - dating back to the early 20th century - concerning the diffusion of innovations. Drawing up a cycle for any particular innovation is an expert and largely qualitative analytical task. However quantitative supporting evidence can nearly always be found to help guide the analyst. Most of these matters are described in the preface, chapter 1 and chapter 2. However you should note that the book is primarily about how to use the cycle as a management tool in a company where you are deciding when and how to adopt new technologies and other innovations. Many of our Fortune 500 clients use it this way every day. It has some important predictive value for scenario building and major milestone setting. However it is not a strong mathematical technique or detailed enough to be generally used in areas like short term sales forecasting or stock trading. The book, should you choose to invest, is fairly inexpensive for a hardbound text (currently about $20 online). Thanks for your questions Paul.
We have been observing market adoption of new technologies using this technique since 1995 so it is very well validated by extensive field use. Gartner tracks over 1000 technologies and related innovations this way each year. The fundamental components of the cycle are based on some very basic patterns that few people would disagree with. The work is also built on the research foundations of others – dating back to the early 20th century – concerning the diffusion of innovations.
Drawing up a cycle for any particular innovation is an expert and largely qualitative analytical task. However quantitative supporting evidence can nearly always be found to help guide the analyst.
Most of these matters are described in the preface, chapter 1 and chapter 2. However you should note that the book is primarily about how to use the cycle as a management tool in a company where you are deciding when and how to adopt new technologies and other innovations. Many of our Fortune 500 clients use it this way every day.
It has some important predictive value for scenario building and major milestone setting. However it is not a strong mathematical technique or detailed enough to be generally used in areas like short term sales forecasting or stock trading.
The book, should you choose to invest, is fairly inexpensive for a hardbound text (currently about $20 online).

]]> By: Paul http://blogs.gartner.com/hypecyclebook/2009/04/21/the-hype-cycle-cant-be-stopped/comment-page-1/#comment-388 Paul Wed, 22 Apr 2009 05:54:58 +0000 http://blogs.gartner.com/hypecyclebook/?p=564#comment-388 The hype cycle is a fundamental phenomenon - based in human psychological responses to the new and novel Without having read your book, I'm really curious about how this statement can be justified. I came across the hype cycle earlier today and I find it to be a very interesting concept, but details on the methodology are scarce, so it is hard to evaluate the accuracy of the method. Is there evidence to show that the hype cycle is a real phenomenon? Does it have predictive power? Can I expect to find this in the book? The hype cycle is a fundamental phenomenon – based in human psychological responses to the new and novel

Without having read your book, I’m really curious about how this statement can be justified. I came across the hype cycle earlier today and I find it to be a very interesting concept, but details on the methodology are scarce, so it is hard to evaluate the accuracy of the method. Is there evidence to show that the hype cycle is a real phenomenon? Does it have predictive power? Can I expect to find this in the book?

]]> By: The Hype Cycle Can’t be Stopped http://blogs.gartner.com/hypecyclebook/2009/04/21/the-hype-cycle-cant-be-stopped/comment-page-1/#comment-384 The Hype Cycle Can’t be Stopped Tue, 21 Apr 2009 08:12:28 +0000 http://blogs.gartner.com/hypecyclebook/?p=564#comment-384 [...] As I explain in another blog today - the repeated pattern of rising social excitement follwed by early delivery disappointment can never be completely prevented. We call it the Hype Cycle and it is inevitable - though its effects on your company can be moderated by the application of effective innovation managment techniques. [...] [...] As I explain in another blog today – the repeated pattern of rising social excitement follwed by early delivery disappointment can never be completely prevented. We call it the Hype Cycle and it is inevitable – though its effects on your company can be moderated by the application of effective innovation managment techniques. [...]

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