A recent TechCrunch blog post by Sarah Lacy used the headline ‘Bloggers: Let’s band together and stop the hype cycle’ . In the piece she is really reacting to the extremes of buzz building and then cynical critique of new ideas by silicon valley commentators online. Pointing to examples like Google, Twitter, Youtube and Loudcloud she is basically calling for bloggers to give start-ups less of a roller-coaster ride for the sake of ‘writing a provocative headline’. We have read Sarah’s article and there is a lot to agree with her on – though the title perhaps overstates the case.
The hype cycle is a fundamental phenomenon – based in human psychological responses to the new and novel. It forms from the interaction between two forces moving at different speeds, neither of which can be avoided if progress is to be made. It can’t be stopped – though it can be moderated. If you are involved in buying and applying technology innovations – your management actions should be designed to make sure the traps of the cycle are avoided and that the worst effects of its highs and lows are moderated. We have spent many years working on those aspects and that’s why we wrote our book about mastering them.
Here’s our response to Sarah (posted on TechCrunch):
I like your thought provoking viewpoint Sarah. However the Hype Cycle is really an inevitability when any substantial technology based innovation is introduced to a market. It can’t be completely stopped because its existence arises from a fundamental mismatch between the speed of social excitement and the slower pace of engineering progress & market penetration. We explain this in our book about the Hype Cycle.
We believe its effect can be dampened by thoughtful management and mastering it includes learning how to use it to your advantage. It is very important to note that a certain amount of hype can help overcome corporate adoption inertia – so hype is not all bad.
The rise of web based social media is sometimes having an amplifying and sharpening effect on the shape of the curve – I think you are seeing that. This is especially true when the situation is self referential i.e. social media hype about new forms of social media. We probably all have a lot to learn in our use of blogging, twittering and the like – as our societies explore and mature into understanding cultural best practices for these media.
4 responses so far ↓
1 The Hype Cycle Can’t be Stopped // Apr 21, 2009 at 3:12 am
[...] As I explain in another blog today – the repeated pattern of rising social excitement follwed by early delivery disappointment can never be completely prevented. We call it the Hype Cycle and it is inevitable – though its effects on your company can be moderated by the application of effective innovation managment techniques. [...]
2 Paul // Apr 22, 2009 at 12:54 am
The hype cycle is a fundamental phenomenon – based in human psychological responses to the new and novel
Without having read your book, I’m really curious about how this statement can be justified. I came across the hype cycle earlier today and I find it to be a very interesting concept, but details on the methodology are scarce, so it is hard to evaluate the accuracy of the method. Is there evidence to show that the hype cycle is a real phenomenon? Does it have predictive power? Can I expect to find this in the book?
3 Mark Raskino // Apr 23, 2009 at 1:49 pm
Thanks for your questions Paul.
We have been observing market adoption of new technologies using this technique since 1995 so it is very well validated by extensive field use. Gartner tracks over 1000 technologies and related innovations this way each year. The fundamental components of the cycle are based on some very basic patterns that few people would disagree with. The work is also built on the research foundations of others – dating back to the early 20th century – concerning the diffusion of innovations.
Drawing up a cycle for any particular innovation is an expert and largely qualitative analytical task. However quantitative supporting evidence can nearly always be found to help guide the analyst.
Most of these matters are described in the preface, chapter 1 and chapter 2. However you should note that the book is primarily about how to use the cycle as a management tool in a company where you are deciding when and how to adopt new technologies and other innovations. Many of our Fortune 500 clients use it this way every day.
It has some important predictive value for scenario building and major milestone setting. However it is not a strong mathematical technique or detailed enough to be generally used in areas like short term sales forecasting or stock trading.
The book, should you choose to invest, is fairly inexpensive for a hardbound text (currently about $20 online).
4 wannadevelop.com // Apr 23, 2009 at 11:14 pm
Hype? What hype??