1. Study the waters
When you are considering a new category of innovation, take time to review its history. What similar waves of change have gone before and how did they play out? Were they short and furious or heavy and slow moving? Was it a perilous peak? Did many people go under in the trough? How did the winners ride it and what can you learn from them? You need to assess the ‘swell’ around this one and decide whether it’s a good time to go out in the water. The economic times may not be conducive – don’t get on the wave if there’s a storm coming and you are bound to be thrown off. The whole environment could be over-heating, you need to watch out for bubble market conditions that are pulling this innovation into turbulent water. Is the innovation space choppy, overlapping and incoherent or can you see a clear wave pattern forming. Are there many others close by who might get in your way or is the coast clear?
For an overview of ‘Rules for Riders’ see previous post
