Since we launched the book in October I’ve been tracking Hype Cycle mentions on the web – mostly in the blogosphere. I notice many passing references to the idea of a Twitter Hype Cycle and a Second Life Hype Cycle. This use of the Hype Cycle is not incorrect – but it misses a lot. Really, it’s the underlying technology or concept that’s following the curve.
Think back a decade or so – I guess if blogging had been common back then, we would all have discussed the ‘Alta Vista’ hype cycle. But really – we would have been considering search engines. What about a ‘Siebel Hype Cycle’ - when packaged CRM was the real issue.
Similarly today – we would learn more by following the ‘microblogging’ hype cycle or the ‘online Virtual Worlds’ hype cycle. These will include the efforts of all players – as the original concept is adopted by others and evolves e.g. for microblogging, by Linked In or Facebook.
The concepts will persist right through to the plateau-of-productivity, even if some of the early vendors don’t survive the trough-of-disillusionment intact. For technology adopters in corporates, the business value is found by exploiting the underlying concept – whichever vendor or system ends up winning a strong market position longer term.
