At a recent IBM-organized panel on collective intelligence, the moderator asked whether ideas such as crowdsourcing and peer production were just a fad. As she asked the question, she observed that she was having a hard time coming up with examples of technology fads, as most ended up having some degree of staying power in the long run.
In writing the section on fads for Mastering the Hype Cycle, we had the same challenge in identifying examples of fads that fell off the hype cycle altogether. To fall off in this way, an innovation needs to be totally devoid of any value that can pull it out of the Trough and on to eventual productivity. One of the collective intelligence panelists suggested “push technology” as an example of a fad. Push did indeed experience a classic Peak of Inflated Expectations, but we view it as an example of a full hype cycle rather than a fad. Although the specific technological approach didn’t last, the goals and ideas of push technology formed the underpinnings of RSS and related capabilities today, and many of us have virus updates pushed to our PCs on a regular basis.
But surely if we stretched beyond technology examples and looked toward the fickle world of pop culture we could find some suitable case studies? An early draft of the book had the following set of (wonderfully alliterative, I thought) examples: “Hype without substance is destined to end up in the wasteland of obscurity along with pet rocks, Pokemon cards, CB radio and the Spice Girls.” My co-author Mark immediately pointed out that his son was a fan of all things Pokemon, and that the cards had in no way faded into obscurity. Although the number of kids prepared to shell out $50 for a holographic Charizard has shrunk dramatically since the heady days of 1999 and 2000, when millions of kids blew billions of dollars on the cards, there remains a devoted following. On a later reading, Mark also expressed a concern that we might be descended upon by hordes of outraged truckers if we suggested that CB radio was just a fad.
That left us relatively safe with the Spice Girls and pet rocks. Or so we thought. Just before the final edits, the Spice Girls announced their reunion tour and another fad rose from the dust. The fad example sentence was published as the sadly abridged “Hype without substance is destined to end up in the wasteland of obscurity, strewn alongside a collection of Pet Rocks.”
We probably could have found another couple of examples by scouring the fashions of past decades – fuzzy dice? outsized shoulder pads? – but we would just as likely have discovered a small but dedicated fan club who found some enduring attraction in each phenomenon. It seems that the Wasteland of Obscurity is far from deserted, but is populated with roving bands of loyal fans, each preserving and perpetuating a shared obsession. Even a small amount of value – whether from the actual innovation or from the social bonding surrounding it – keeps the nichest of fads alive, and the long tail grows ever longer.
