Mastering The Hype Cycle

In a May blog post we looked at the growing activity in augmented reality, such as Nokia’s Point and Find and Mobilizy’s Wikitude. Since then, we’ve noticed a surge of interest in human computer interaction more generally, both in terms of client inquiries and press attention.

Some of this is certainly focused around augmented reality, as organizations examine how they might be able to use the cameras on mobile devices to drive image recognition as an additional cue for augmenting their view of the real world. Real time video feeds or snapshots of places and items can be compared against a database of images to identify the place or object and deliver relevant information as an overlay on top of the image feed. Use of location and compass information can limit the search space to a manageable level.

Microsoft Surface is another topic where we’ve been receiving a small but growing number of inquiries. Most of the interest is around how to use the buzz associated with this still-novel interface to drive brand image in hospitality and retail environments, from Barclay’s Bank to the iBar – a 10 foot long bar which reacts to the bottles and glasses and anything else placed on top of it (I’m feeling the need for a field trip to check that one out…)

It’s good to see these ideas emerging from niche research into real commercialization – we’ve been stuck in the WIMP interface paradigm for over three decades now. Our human computer interaction hype cycle (see below) was featured in New Scientist and Fast Company recently – perhaps an indication that the field of HCI is itself rising toward the Peak.

Human Computer Interaction Hype Cycle for 2009

(Note that this human computer interaction hype cycle is NOT the same as the emerging technologies hype cycle – we publish over 70 different hype cycles each year.)

Between them they cover over 1650 technologies.

Now available to clients via our
Hype Cycles 2009 special report landing page:

Hype Cycle for Consumer Mobile Applications
Hype Cycle for Consumer Technologies
Hype Cycle for Contact Center Infrastructure
Hype Cycle for Content Management
Hype Cycle for Context-Aware Computing
Hype Cycle for Data Center Power and Cooling Technologies
Hype Cycle for Data Management
Hype Cycle for E-commerce technologies (September)
Hype Cycle for Emerging Technologies
Hype Cycle for Enterprise Communications Applications
Hype Cycle for Enterprise Information Management
Hype Cycle for Global Consumer Communications Services
Hype Cycle for Human-Computer Interaction
Hype Cycle for Identity and Access Management Technologies
Hype Cycle for Infrastructure Protection
Hype Cycle for Master Data Management
Hype Cycle for Mobile Device Technologies
Hype Cycle for Networking and Communications
Hype Cycle for PC Technologies
Hype Cycle for Photovoltaic Solar Energy
Hype Cycle for Printing Markets and Management
Hype Cycle for Semiconductors
Hype Cycle for Server Technologies
Hype Cycle for Smart Grid Technologies
Hype Cycle for Social Software
Hype Cycle for Storage Hardware Technologies
Hype Cycle for Storage Software Technologies
Hype Cycle for Telemedicine
Hype Cycle for the High-Performance Workplace
Hype Cycle for Web and User Interaction Technologies
Hype Cycle for Wireless Devices, Software and Services
Hype Cycle for Application Architecture
Hype Cycle for Application Development
Hype Cycle for Application Infrastructure
Hype Cycle for Application Infrastructure
Hype Cycle for Business Continuity Management
Hype Cycle for Business Intelligence and Performance Management
Hype Cycle for Business Process Management
Hype Cycle for Business Process Outsourcing
Hype Cycle for Cloud Computing
Hype Cycle for Consulting and System Integration, 2009
Hype Cycle for CRM Customer Service and Field Service
Hype Cycle for CRM Marketing Applications
Hype Cycle for CRM Sales
Hype Cycle for Data and Application Security
Hype Cycle for Governance, Risk and Compliance Technologies
Hype Cycle for Human Capital Management Software
Hype Cycle for ICT in India
Hype Cycle for IT Operations Management
Hype Cycle for IT Outsourcing
Hype Cycle for Manufacturing Product Lifecycle Management and Production
Hype Cycle for Open-Source Software
Hype Cycle for Procurement Applications
Hype Cycle for Real-Time Infrastructure
Hype Cycle for Software as a Service
Hype Cycle for Supply Chain Management
Hype Cycle for Virtualization
Hype Cycle for Automotive Demand Chain and Supply Chain Technologies
Hype Cycle for Banking and Investment Services Customer Technologies
Hype Cycle for Banking and Investment Services Operations Technologies
Hype Cycle for Communications Service Provider Infrastructure
Hype Cycle for Communications Service Provider Operations
Hype Cycle for Consumer Goods
Hype Cycle for Education
Hype Cycle for Financial Services Payment Systems
Hype Cycle for Government Transformation
Hype Cycle for Healthcare Payers
Hype Cycle for Healthcare Provider Applications and Systems
Hype Cycle for Healthcare Providers Technologies and Standards
Hype Cycle for Life Insurance
Hype Cycle for Media Broadcasting
Hype Cycle for Media Industry Advertising
Hype Cycle for Media Industry Content
Hype Cycle for P&C Insurance
Hype Cycle for Retail Technologies
Hype Cycle for the Telecommunications Industry
Hype Cycle for Transportation
Hype Cycle for Utility Industry IT and Business Processes
Hype Cycle for Utility Industry Operational and Energy Technologies
Hype Cycle for Vehicle-Centric Information and Communication Technologies (Vehicle ICT)

Surfing the hype cycle of a major innovation is hard work and risky if attempted alone. All leadership can get lonely and this state can be disorientating. To avoid dizziness at the peak of inflated expectations or self destructive behavior in the trough of disillusionment you may need a helping hand. A personal mentor – formal or informal – is a sensible precaution for any hype cycle rider. Pick someone of wisdom and detachment from the situation. Pick someone who has seen many waves and many riders come and go before. Pick someone you trust to be open with and who will help you read both the state the wave and your performance with honesty and directness.

Reminding yourself of these rules should help you maintain a sense of perspective and avoid the mental straight jacket we all tend to fall into when following innovation projects, particularly those that will occupy us for several years.

This is the last in a series of 11

For an overview of ‘Rules for Riders’ see previous post

In the last week we have seen a few situations where Gartner’s 2009 hype cycle research charts have been copied into public blogs and other websites without permission.  We know this is often born of interest and enthusiasm for Hype Cycles.  However it is not acceptable within our terms and conditions of use.  Our company ombudsman Nancy Erskine, explains our reprint policy here.

A great deal of research work goes into these important annual documents and the chart itself is  information rich, but without all the supporting pages it is very easily misinterpreted.  You may have noticed we do not post these charts within our own GBN public blogs.

Thanks for your understanding.

We’ve seen the hype cycle used in several MBA and other graduate courses to inform the discussion on information technology adoption, but we were gratified to receive this feedback from a lecturer in regenerative medicine:

“Congratulations on an excellent book! I use the Gartner hype cycle for a number of my lectures and presentations with respect to stem cells, tissue engineering and regenerative medicine – All are emerging technologies and all are moving nicely along the hype cycle!”

If you’re running a course that uses Mastering the Hype Cycle as a text, we’d love to hear how you are incorporating it and how it’s working out.

A good project board (or innovation steering group) is valuable asset that should last a lifetime if you look after it. So treat it with respect, put effort into maintaining relationships. Innovation needs guidance, maintain your board with a variety of members with different viewpoints and experience. This will help ensure you get both the right critique and the right insights from all angles. Regularly Wax (lyrical) to them about progress in your current innovation projects.

For an overview of ‘Rules for Riders’ see previous post

It won’t surprise you to know we are pleased about this!  It makes a lot of sense for a book about IT innovation to be available as an e-book download, on the device that is really stirring up the publishing industry. Mark is sad that Kindle still doesn’t exist in Europe, Africa or APAC yet – but if you are thinking of getting the download in the USA – we sincerely hope you enjoy the read.

Get the Kindle edition

As you rise up the slope of enlightenment to the plateau, don’t get arrogant. Your understanding is rising and so are the returns. But scaling an innovation has its kinks and bumps too. At this point, when it seems the hardest and most dangerous times are past, it is easy to loose concentration and make a silly mistake. Innovation leaders often have personality types that don’t make them strong natural ‘completer / finishers’. They start thinking about the next buzz and the next wave before the job is completely done. Don’t fall off before at the end, in front of the crowd with your face in the dirt just at the very time when you should be taking the applause. And remember to thank your support team vociferously so they will want to come with you next time; innovation adoption leaders are quiet heroes.

For an overview of ‘Rules for Riders’ see previous post

In a Financial Times online article dated June 2nd, Mr. David Smith – the Chief Investment Director of GAM (part of the Swiss wealth management company Julius Baer) discusses the hedge fund bubble burst of 2008. As part of his analysis he says:

The research group Gartner tried to prove the potentially positive outcomes of bubbles in its theory of the “hype cycle”, in which mass adoption of any product begins with a “technology trigger” that generates significant interest. This leads to a “peak of inflated expectations”. When reality fails to live up to these hopes, the industry enters a “trough of disillusionment” in which many businesses leave. Those that remain continue through to a “slope of enlightenment” in which a more practical understanding of the technology’s potential is reached. The final stage is the “plateau of productivity”.

One key factor missing from Gartner’s analysis is capital. The surge to the “peak of inflated expectations” can only occur if capital is cheap and freely available. And this is a key point to remember when analysing the hedge fund bubble of 2008.

The Gartner Hype Cycle was created to analyse technology innovations progress through their markets from an adopters point of view. While we are always very happy to see its use extended to other fields, it is not a general economic theory about bubbles and we would not wish to give that impression. We are not economists.

Mr. Smith makes a good point about the availability of capital. While the hype cycle will be in play for even the simplest and cheapest of innovations, its magnitude can certainly be amplified considerably by freely available capital. The dot com bubble is the most obvious example. The Silicon Valley funding of web 2.0 is another.

Hedge funds are not a new invention; they have been around since the early 1950s. Forbes Invstopedia suggests there was a hedge fund boom peak in 1968, followed by a crash in 73-4, then another boom in the 90’s which saw a major fallout in the early 2000s. So we have just passed through a third wave.  It therefore seems likely hedge funds form a repeated cyclical, or boom-bust investment market, like property, that rises and falls repeatedly.  Over the medium term (perhaps 5 to 10 years) this can sometimes be mistaken for a hype cycle. We have noted the difference before in this Blog.   In the Hype Cycle two underlying curves create the shape: the social excitement bell curve plus the innovation performance maturity S curve. It is not obvious that hedge funds in their current form are a new invention, maturing in their technical performance, in this decade.

So on balance, it seems unlikely that the Hype Cycle model can be applied to the current situation of the hedge fund industry. However it is possible that the hype cycle applies to some financial instruments – where they are genuinely novel innovations. For example, as we have raised in this blog previously, it is possible that the Hype Cycle applies to the instrument at the epicenter of this recession – the CDO.

I am certainly no expert in financial investment vehicles. So if anyone cares to expand on this debate, I would be very happy to hear from them.