Mastering The Hype Cycle

How to Choose the Right Innovation at the Right Time

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The Gartner Hype Cycles for 2013 are published – list here

August 20th, 2013 by Mark Raskino · 1 Comment

Gartner creates a whole series of hype cycle reports every year. The 2013 Hype Cycles were published this month – over 90 of them. Its an impressive collection of research and a resource we know our clients depend on and value highly.

The press release, which includes the famous “emerging technologies” hype cycle is available here: http://www.gartner.com/newsroom/id/2575515

But that’s a tiny fraction of the coverage clients have access to. The whole “special report” is accessible here: http://www.gartner.com/technology/research/hype-cycles/

This years full list of subject areas – with active links – is below.

 

BUSINESS INNOVATION AND EMERGING TRENDS

Hype Cycle for Embedded Software and Systems, 2013

Hype Cycle for Emerging Technologies, 2013

Hype Cycle for Human-Computer Interaction, 2013

Hype Cycle for Internet of Things, 2013

Hype Cycle for Operational Technology, 2013

Hype Cycle for Semiconductors and Electronics Technologies, 2013

Hype Cycle for Strategic Business Capabilities, 2013

 

APPLICATION DESIGN AND DEVELOPMENT

Hype Cycle for Application Architecture, 2013

Hype Cycle for Application Development, 2013

Hype Cycle for Application Infrastructure, 2013

Hype Cycle for Application Security, 2013

Hype Cycle for In-Memory Computing Technology, 2013

Hype Cycle for Web Computing, 2013

 

APPLICATIONS

Hype Cycle for Analytic Applications, 2013

Hype Cycle for Business Intelligence and Analytics, 2013

Hype Cycle for Business Process Management, 2013

Hype Cycle for Consumer Market Research, 2013

Hype Cycle for Content and Social Analytics, 2013

Hype Cycle for CRM Customer Service and Support, 2013

Hype Cycle for CRM Marketing Applications, 2013

Hype Cycle for CRM Sales, 2013

Hype Cycle for Digital Marketing, 2013

Hype Cycle for E-Commerce, 2013

Hype Cycle for ERP, 2013

Hype Cycle for Human Capital Management Software, 2013

Hype Cycle for Social Software, 2013

Hype Cycle for Supply Chain Execution, 2013

 

COMMUNICATIONS

Hype Cycle for Communications Service Provider Infrastructure, 2013

Hype Cycle for Communications Service Provider Operations, 2013

Hype Cycle for Consumer Services and Mobile Applications, 2013

Hype Cycle for Networking and Communications, 2013

Hype Cycle for Unified Communications and Collaboration, 2013

Hype Cycle for Wireless Devices, Software and Services, 2013

Hype Cycle for Wireless Networking Infrastructure, 2013

 

ENERGY AND SUSTAINABILITY

Hype Cycle for Emerging Energy Technologies, 2013

Hype Cycle for Green IT, 2013

Hype Cycle for Smart City Technologies and Solutions, 2013

Hype Cycle for Smart Grid Technologies, 2013

Hype Cycle for Solar Energy, 2013

Hype Cycle for Sustainability, 2013

 

GEOGRAPHIC

Hype Cycle for Green IT and Sustainability in China, 2013

Hype Cycle for Green IT and Sustainability in India, 2013

Hype Cycle for ICT in Africa, 2013

Hype Cycle for ICT in China, 2013

Hype Cycle for ICT in India, 2013

 

HARDWARE AND DEVICES

Hype Cycle for Consumer Devices, 2013

Hype Cycle for Consumer Technologies, 2013

Hype Cycle for Mobile Device Technologies, 2013

Hype Cycle for Server Technologies, 2013

Hype Cycle for Storage Technologies, 2013

 

INFORMATION INFRASTRUCTURE

Hype Cycle for Big Data, 2013

Hype Cycle for Content Management, 2013

Hype Cycle for Data and Collaboration Security, 2013

Hype Cycle for Enterprise Architecture, 2013

Hype Cycle for Enterprise Information Management, 2013

Hype Cycle for Governance, Risk and Compliance Technologies, 2013

Hype Cycle for Identity and Access Management Technologies, 2013

Hype Cycle for Information Infrastructure, 2013

Hype Cycle for Infrastructure Protection, 2013

Hype Cycle for Legal and Regulatory Information Governance, 2013

Hype Cycle for Privacy, 2013

 

IT SERVICES AND OPERATIONS

Hype Cycle for Application Services, 2013

Hype Cycle for Business Continuity Management and IT Disaster Recovery Management, 2013

Hype Cycle for Business Process Services and Outsourcing, 2013

Hype Cycle for Cloud Computing, 2013

Hype Cycle for Cloud Security, 2013

Hype Cycle for Cloud Services Brokerage, 2013

Hype Cycle for Data Center Power and Cooling Technologies, 2013

Hype Cycle for Imaging and Print Services, 2013

Hype Cycle for IT Infrastructure and Outsourcing Services, 2013

Hype Cycle for IT Operations Management, 2013

Hype Cycle for Platform as a Service (PaaS), 2013

Hype Cycle for Real-Time Infrastructure, 2013

Hype Cycle for Software as a Service, 2013

Hype Cycle for Virtualization, 2013

 

INDUSTRIES

Hype Cycle for Advertising, 2013

Hype Cycle for Automotive Demand Chain and Supply Chain Technologies, 2013

Hype Cycle for Automotive Electronics, 2013

Hype Cycle for Bank Operations Innovation, 2013

Hype Cycle for Consumer Goods, 2013

Hype Cycle for Digital Banking, 2013

Hype Cycle for Discrete Manufacturing and PLM, 2013

Hype Cycle for Education, 2013

Hype Cycle for Financial Services Payment Systems, 2013

Hype Cycle for Healthcare Payers, 2013

Hype Cycle for Healthcare Provider Applications and Systems, 2013

Hype Cycle for Healthcare Provider Technologies and Standards, 2013

Hype Cycle for Life Insurance, 2013

Hype Cycle for Life Sciences, 2013

Hype Cycle for Media and Entertainment, 2013

Hype Cycle for Media Industry Publishing, 2013

Hype Cycle for Open Banking, 2013

Hype Cycle for P&C Insurance, 2013

Hype Cycle for Process Manufacturing and PLM, 2013

Hype Cycle for Retail Technologies, 2013

Hype Cycle for Smart Government, 2013

Hype Cycle for Telemedicine, 2013

Hype Cycle for the Future of Money, 2013

Hype Cycle for the Telecommunications Industry, 2013

Hype Cycle for Utility Industry IT and Business Processes, 2013

Hype Cycle for Utility Industry Operational Technologies, 2013

Hype Cycle for Vehicle-Centric Information and Communication Technologies (Vehicle ICT), 2013

 

 

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Gartner’s 2013 Hype Cycles are coming soon…

July 2nd, 2013 by Mark Raskino · 1 Comment

The Hype Cycle is one of Gartner’s longest standing research tools. Our clients use it annually, to help filter the deluge of new technology and innovation opportunities they might choose to adopt. Each year, hundreds of Gartner analysts are involved in researching and publishing individual Hype Cycle reports tracking many emerging and evolving technologies and techology-related innovations.  Our project to deliver the ’special report’ – an integrated  collection of all those indivividual hype cycle reports – is on track to publish this August.

 Last year we published over 90 hype cycles, which between them profiled 1,963 technologies and related innovations. This year it will be close to 100 hype cycles and over 2000 profiles. Some of the new ares of coverage will include: Open Banking,  Procurement, Embedded Software and Systems, Consumer Market Research, Multienterprise Solutions and ICT in Africa. I’m always excited to see the annual update -  to find out what’s peaking, what’s troughing and what’s brand new at the trigger point of the curve.

 All 2012 HC TPs visualized on white

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A visualization of all the Hype Cycle data

January 26th, 2013 by Mark Raskino · Comments Off

Last year Gartner analysts published over 90 Hype Cycle reports covering different technology domains. There were more than 1900 technology profiles within those charts. I had always wanted to see all that data in one place, at one time.

During some other work – on information as strategy, a client challenged my suggestion that we should all be doing more data visualization - because its easy. My point was that with today’s software tools, GPUs and large high res display monitors is should be easy and I don’t know why people don’t do more of it. 15 or 20 years ago we would not have dreamed of the graphics capabilities available to modern developers today.  ”But”, the client said, “where would I hire such visual programmers?”

When I thought about that, I wondered how hard it would be for anyone to learn to do original data visualization.   It has been a couple of decades since I did any programming at all – but I assumed that modern development tools would make it reasonably easy.  After not much Googling I found that turns out to be true. Soon enough I was having fun with a special purpose visualization language called ‘Processing’ (www.processing.org).

It took me a couple of weekends to learn and play and produce what I wanted.  I took an excel spreadsheet containing the data for all the profiles analysts created for all the 2012 hype cycles. I pulled that data  into my program, and plotted it. My code was horribly amateur, but it did what I wanted.

Here is the result.  Click on it to enlarge and see the detail.

2012 Gartner Hype Cycle Profiles Visualised

Each data point is a technology.  I used color to indicate the analyst’s assigned “time to plateau”. A combination of size and shape indicate the analyst’s view of the level of impact the technology will have. When I finished, I realized there are 1962 items in total ( a bit spooky - because I happened to be born in 1962.)

It’s really nice to see all the data at one glance. It’s not massively valuable -but it does let Jackie and I see some patterns. For example there are a few red items on the right hand side of the chart. Red indicates “obsolete before plateau”.  Usually ,we should make that predictive call earlier in the life of the technology. Another example pattern is the general spread of the data.  Overall it looks quite healthy and the far left side is fairly well populated .. showing that the pipeline of new technology is fairly strong. The trough area and the peak area are well populated – which shows analysts are making the hard calls.

We don’t intend to do anything with this. It was just a personal experiment. But I thought it worth sharing.

 

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Ninety shades of hype

August 8th, 2012 by Mark Raskino · Comments Off

Here are parts of some comments people have recently posted on a well known website. Can you guess what they are talking about?

  • “I decided to jump onto the hype…”
  • “I didn’t have great expectations…  but I was still disappointed”
  • “I bought this after all my friends, one after the other said they were.. “
  • “I am lucky, I did not have to buy it, because personally, if I had contributed to the fortune that has been made from this disturbing trash I doubt there are sufficient penances in the world for me to perform to atone for my crass error of judgement.”
  • “OK I only bought this because of the hype.”
  • “I am so cross I succumbed to the marketing …”
  • “I downloaded this because my friends were hammering on about it. Yep, I was a sheep.”

No they are not talking about a piece of application software from a major vendor.. but about a book that has sold in very large numbers this year, in the category of ‘romantic’ fiction. Many people commenting on Amazon clearly wish they had not succumbed to the peer pressure or herd instinct that caused them to buy and read it. Despite their gut instinct and usual avoidance of that genre, they somehow felt compelled. The force of social contagion is incredibly powerful. Smart, highly educated, analytical people can betray their better judgement because of it.

Your next major business or technology investment decision is just as susceptible to this force. You can easily be swayed if it appears that everyone else is joining in. Standing away from the market and waiting, feels lonely and more risky than jumping aboard. But often – waiting until the time is right for your company situation, is exactly the right move.

This year, Gartner is publishing over 90 hype cycles ( subscription required ) covering more than 1900 innovations in many different technology related domains . You can use that research, to stay logical and remind yourself of the inevitable pattern of hype, disillusionment and eventual recovery.

Gartner doesn’t have a position on this summer’s fiction paperback best seller, but I can tell you mine: I won’t be reading it. I doubt that the momentary satisfaction of voicing an opinion at a dinner table will be worth it.  I can always read it 2 years from now .. once the market has formed a collective conclusion on its real value.

 

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Our 2012 Hype Cycles are taking shape

July 6th, 2012 by Mark Raskino · 1 Comment

Gartner analysts are busy finishing their 2012 hype cycles and passing them over to our editing team. The whole special report will be published in August.  Jackie and I are helping people with the finer points of hype cycle crafting – making sure positions are sharp and all moves are well explained. This year we expect to have nearly 100 hype cycles profiling close to 2000 technologies and related innovations. The breadth of coverage will grow again.

We are hoping to deliver new hype cycles in several topic areas including Big Data, In-Memory Computing, The Internet of things, Contact Centre, Human Capital Management, Cloud Service Brokerage and Strategic Business Capabilities.

 

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More “Next Big Things” – the classic hype cycle signal phrase

June 8th, 2012 by Mark Raskino · Comments Off

As we have mentioned before in the blog dear hypecyclists, the phrase “next big thing” is a classic indicator that an innovation is rising up from the trigger towards the peak of inflated expectations.  A simple Google News search for this keyword sequence is a great way to trawl for a big catch of fresh hype. Try it yourself sometime.  Here’s what caught my eye when I did it this week.

  • Cloning teeth    – this midle aged analyst says yes please!
  • 3D online gambling  – we need to make it more addctive?
  • Content monetisation  – yes indeed, that would be nice.
  • Transparent TVs    – not sure I see it myself.
  • Korean Pop Music – love Korean tech, but the synthpop?.. not so much.
  • Touch ultrabooks  – the industry seems determned to try every combination and permutation
  • Adaptive Radio -  a surprisingly deep-dive tech for Businessweek attention
  • OpenStack – cloud and opensource at the same time…  guaranteed hypefest!
  • Pinterest – oh but isn’t it like, just soooo 2011 girlfriend?
  • Underwater hotels – don’t hold your breath.
  • Smart TV e-commerce – if I had a dollar for every time since 1996 that somebody said this…
  • SoLoMo -  surely nobody can say that word out loud with a serious face .. so how can it catch on?
  • Social medicine  – oh yeah, that’s the real future  – the one that 1970s TV told us about.. beam me up Scotty.
  • Wii U games – for Mario & Luigi’s sake I really hope so.
  • Kickstarter for Apps – perhaps a generation of young crowdfunded entrepreneurs will save us all from financial ruin
  • A.I. – always interesting

 

 

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Pulling the Trigger

January 27th, 2012 by Jackie Fenn · Comments Off

As Seth Godin points out in a recent blog posting, there is often a long preamble to the trigger that launches an innovation on its path up to the Peak of Inflated Expectation. In Mastering the Hype Cycle, we track the advent of usage-based car insurance offerings (such as Snapshot from Progressive Insurance) back to vehicle tracking discussions in the 1970s. In this case, as in many others, it took decades for technology performance and costs to reach a point where realistic user trials, and eventually products and services, were technologically feasible and economically viable. There are often mini-peaks and troughs along the way – for example, breakthroughs in quantum computing are reported every few years. Designer and researcher Bill Buxton calls this phenomenon the long nose of innovation (a play on the “long tail” of product popularity).

Spotting the trigger of a hype cycle can be a challenging but highly rewarding activity – it’s mostly the domain of the aggressive, Type-A adopters who keep an eye on start-ups, go to VC events, and tour industrial and academic labs regularly. The payoff is first mover advantage, the penalty for getting it wrong is wasted investment and potentially tipping off fast followers about a strategically important bet. But for the growing number of organizations who are adopting a strategy of being selectively aggressive in areas that matter to them, learning to spot the trigger is an important skill to master.

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Avatar’s James Cameron Talks about the 3D Hype Cycle

September 23rd, 2011 by Mark Raskino · Comments Off

This week, in a keynote interview at a summit organised by the Hollywood magazine Variety, movie director James Cameron discussed the Gartner Hype Cycle. Below is a photo, kindly shared with us by Philip Leylveld, who created some of the slides used in the stage debate about 3D technology in the movies.

Forbes.com reports that when Variety’s David Cohen suggested 3D was going into the hype cycle trough of disillusionment, Cameron said:  “This represents perception, not reality… we have to turn around that perception”.

We agree. After the initial wave of excitement, the idea that modern 3D TV and movies would be the next big thing, has been descending into the trough.  But pioneers like Cameron don’t give up easily! They keep plugging away to fix the problems  until an innovation can be placed firmly onto the slope of enlightenment – where predictable business returns start to multiply.


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Hype Cycle stories on the Financial Times FT.Com

April 20th, 2011 by Mark Raskino · Comments Off

Financial Times contributors have written about Hype Cycles several  times over the last few months, on a variety of subjects:
(FT registration needed)

Did you ever wonder who first drew on a page, that classic hype cycle curve shape? It was my colleague and friend Jackie Fenn in 1995. She’s still one of Gartner’s most senior analysts. Here’s a (FREE)  video interview with the Financial Times, where she talks about the emerging technologies Hype Cycle 2010.

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Classic hype cycle signal term: “DOA”

April 15th, 2011 by Mark Raskino · Comments Off

I love CNET’s “Buzz Out Loud” podcast and its very impressive presenters. Yesterday I was listening to the April 13 episode 1447 and a rapid fire interchange of views between a couple of long time anchors.

Molly Wood: “I feel like in a lot of ways you’ve just gotta let it go – like 3D is just kinda DOA”
Brian Cooley: “And the retailers know its just dead on the floor”

(27:15 to 27:22)

THAT term – DOA… just jumped out at me. It should be a classic marker signal for all hype cycle followers. You just know that the peak has passed when you start hearing that term.

A technology has barely arrived on the market and already, sentiment is turning negative.

I can take no position on 3DTV – its not my coverage as an analyst. But when I hear that word, it gives me a pretty strong indication about where I would place it on the hype cycle.

Listen out for DOA in your tech news reading and listening.

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