Mastering The Hype Cycle

A question we get quite frequently is whether the hype cycle has “speeded up” since we first introduced it in 1995. At the heart of this question is a feeling that the pace of innovation has accelerated and that we are being hit with new technologies at an ever-increasing rate.

When we look at the velocity that innovations are moving through the hype cycle, there is one type of innovation that does seem to move at a much higher speed. These are the innovations that arise from the consumer Web world, in particular those that involve collaboration and social networking. These technologies, as typified by YouTube, Facebook and Twitter, seem to launch fully formed and move rapidly from the early adopters to the Peak of Inflated Expectations, often in less than a year. There is still some inevitable disillusionment (see Mark’s posting Classic Hype Cycle Turn Signal – Twitter Backlash Reported) as individuals figure out how to manage a new source of potential information overload and companies scratch their heads about finding the business value. For corporate adoption in particular, it may still take several years for the innovation to move from the Peak to the Plateau of Productivity. But overall, the path is distinctly more rapid than a traditional, multi-decade hype cycle.

The feature that distinguishes these technologies is that they are born not from years of visible, documented laboratory R&D, but from the viral melting pot of the Web. For every Facebook and Twitter, a thousand similar ideas were also launched that didn’t have quite the right set of features, or the right interface, to rise above the crowd. Once the next viral site does emerge, it has already won a Darwinian battle and is ready for broader adoption.

Outside of this class of technology, it seems that in most cases the overall speed through the hype cycle hasn’t necessarily increased. Some of the innovations that will start to hit the Peak this year – such as augmented reality, tablets and touch technologies – have already been in the labs for decades. In particular, technologies that involve fundamental hardware advances, such as a new type of display or networking capability, tend to have a long period of laboratory fermentation.

Going forward, we are likely to see a growing proportion of innovations arising in the consumer world, particularly with the growth of platforms and app stores that encourage and reward a broad set of innovators. It will be important to track these sources as well as traditional labs and vendors. But the hype cycle still seems to be holding up as a pattern that reflects our attitudes to most types of innovation, and accounting for both “fast track” and “long fuse” technologies. Perhaps what is accelerating is not so much the pace of innovation itself, but rather society’s level of ADD, causing us to cycle more rapidly between our peaks of enthusiasm for each next new thing.

A new year, a slow economic thaw and a return to business growth.  You need innovation and you need inspiration here’s a way to get both going.  Get our book about the hype cycle, selecting the right emerging technology at the right time and using the STREET model to organise your adoption effort – but for double effect, get it as an Amazon Kindle download!  There are many innovation management books but not so many published by Harvard Business Press and even fewer already available as e-books.  A classic  hype cycle ‘case study’ technology in its own right – e-book readers are a hot topic, one of the big news stories at  this year’s CES and a great way to get innovation conversations started.

'Mastering the Hype Cycle' on a Kindle 2 e-book reader

In a May blog post we looked at the growing activity in augmented reality, such as Nokia’s Point and Find and Mobilizy’s Wikitude. Since then, we’ve noticed a surge of interest in human computer interaction more generally, both in terms of client inquiries and press attention.

Some of this is certainly focused around augmented reality, as organizations examine how they might be able to use the cameras on mobile devices to drive image recognition as an additional cue for augmenting their view of the real world. Real time video feeds or snapshots of places and items can be compared against a database of images to identify the place or object and deliver relevant information as an overlay on top of the image feed. Use of location and compass information can limit the search space to a manageable level.

Microsoft Surface is another topic where we’ve been receiving a small but growing number of inquiries. Most of the interest is around how to use the buzz associated with this still-novel interface to drive brand image in hospitality and retail environments, from Barclay’s Bank to the iBar – a 10 foot long bar which reacts to the bottles and glasses and anything else placed on top of it (I’m feeling the need for a field trip to check that one out…)

It’s good to see these ideas emerging from niche research into real commercialization – we’ve been stuck in the WIMP interface paradigm for over three decades now. Our human computer interaction hype cycle (see below) was featured in New Scientist and Fast Company recently – perhaps an indication that the field of HCI is itself rising toward the Peak.

Human Computer Interaction Hype Cycle for 2009

(Note that this human computer interaction hype cycle is NOT the same as the emerging technologies hype cycle – we publish over 70 different hype cycles each year.)

Between them they cover over 1650 technologies.

Now available to clients via our
Hype Cycles 2009 special report landing page:

Hype Cycle for Consumer Mobile Applications
Hype Cycle for Consumer Technologies
Hype Cycle for Contact Center Infrastructure
Hype Cycle for Content Management
Hype Cycle for Context-Aware Computing
Hype Cycle for Data Center Power and Cooling Technologies
Hype Cycle for Data Management
Hype Cycle for E-commerce technologies (September)
Hype Cycle for Emerging Technologies
Hype Cycle for Enterprise Communications Applications
Hype Cycle for Enterprise Information Management
Hype Cycle for Global Consumer Communications Services
Hype Cycle for Human-Computer Interaction
Hype Cycle for Identity and Access Management Technologies
Hype Cycle for Infrastructure Protection
Hype Cycle for Master Data Management
Hype Cycle for Mobile Device Technologies
Hype Cycle for Networking and Communications
Hype Cycle for PC Technologies
Hype Cycle for Photovoltaic Solar Energy
Hype Cycle for Printing Markets and Management
Hype Cycle for Semiconductors
Hype Cycle for Server Technologies
Hype Cycle for Smart Grid Technologies
Hype Cycle for Social Software
Hype Cycle for Storage Hardware Technologies
Hype Cycle for Storage Software Technologies
Hype Cycle for Telemedicine
Hype Cycle for the High-Performance Workplace
Hype Cycle for Web and User Interaction Technologies
Hype Cycle for Wireless Devices, Software and Services
Hype Cycle for Application Architecture
Hype Cycle for Application Development
Hype Cycle for Application Infrastructure
Hype Cycle for Application Infrastructure
Hype Cycle for Business Continuity Management
Hype Cycle for Business Intelligence and Performance Management
Hype Cycle for Business Process Management
Hype Cycle for Business Process Outsourcing
Hype Cycle for Cloud Computing
Hype Cycle for Consulting and System Integration, 2009
Hype Cycle for CRM Customer Service and Field Service
Hype Cycle for CRM Marketing Applications
Hype Cycle for CRM Sales
Hype Cycle for Data and Application Security
Hype Cycle for Governance, Risk and Compliance Technologies
Hype Cycle for Human Capital Management Software
Hype Cycle for ICT in India
Hype Cycle for IT Operations Management
Hype Cycle for IT Outsourcing
Hype Cycle for Manufacturing Product Lifecycle Management and Production
Hype Cycle for Open-Source Software
Hype Cycle for Procurement Applications
Hype Cycle for Real-Time Infrastructure
Hype Cycle for Software as a Service
Hype Cycle for Supply Chain Management
Hype Cycle for Virtualization
Hype Cycle for Automotive Demand Chain and Supply Chain Technologies
Hype Cycle for Banking and Investment Services Customer Technologies
Hype Cycle for Banking and Investment Services Operations Technologies
Hype Cycle for Communications Service Provider Infrastructure
Hype Cycle for Communications Service Provider Operations
Hype Cycle for Consumer Goods
Hype Cycle for Education
Hype Cycle for Financial Services Payment Systems
Hype Cycle for Government Transformation
Hype Cycle for Healthcare Payers
Hype Cycle for Healthcare Provider Applications and Systems
Hype Cycle for Healthcare Providers Technologies and Standards
Hype Cycle for Life Insurance
Hype Cycle for Media Broadcasting
Hype Cycle for Media Industry Advertising
Hype Cycle for Media Industry Content
Hype Cycle for P&C Insurance
Hype Cycle for Retail Technologies
Hype Cycle for the Telecommunications Industry
Hype Cycle for Transportation
Hype Cycle for Utility Industry IT and Business Processes
Hype Cycle for Utility Industry Operational and Energy Technologies
Hype Cycle for Vehicle-Centric Information and Communication Technologies (Vehicle ICT)

Surfing the hype cycle of a major innovation is hard work and risky if attempted alone. All leadership can get lonely and this state can be disorientating. To avoid dizziness at the peak of inflated expectations or self destructive behavior in the trough of disillusionment you may need a helping hand. A personal mentor – formal or informal – is a sensible precaution for any hype cycle rider. Pick someone of wisdom and detachment from the situation. Pick someone who has seen many waves and many riders come and go before. Pick someone you trust to be open with and who will help you read both the state the wave and your performance with honesty and directness.

Reminding yourself of these rules should help you maintain a sense of perspective and avoid the mental straight jacket we all tend to fall into when following innovation projects, particularly those that will occupy us for several years.

This is the last in a series of 11

For an overview of ‘Rules for Riders’ see previous post

In the last week we have seen a few situations where Gartner’s 2009 hype cycle research charts have been copied into public blogs and other websites without permission.  We know this is often born of interest and enthusiasm for Hype Cycles.  However it is not acceptable within our terms and conditions of use.  Our company ombudsman Nancy Erskine, explains our reprint policy here.

A great deal of research work goes into these important annual documents and the chart itself is  information rich, but without all the supporting pages it is very easily misinterpreted.  You may have noticed we do not post these charts within our own GBN public blogs.

Thanks for your understanding.

We’ve seen the hype cycle used in several MBA and other graduate courses to inform the discussion on information technology adoption, but we were gratified to receive this feedback from a lecturer in regenerative medicine:

“Congratulations on an excellent book! I use the Gartner hype cycle for a number of my lectures and presentations with respect to stem cells, tissue engineering and regenerative medicine – All are emerging technologies and all are moving nicely along the hype cycle!”

If you’re running a course that uses Mastering the Hype Cycle as a text, we’d love to hear how you are incorporating it and how it’s working out.

A good project board (or innovation steering group) is valuable asset that should last a lifetime if you look after it. So treat it with respect, put effort into maintaining relationships. Innovation needs guidance, maintain your board with a variety of members with different viewpoints and experience. This will help ensure you get both the right critique and the right insights from all angles. Regularly Wax (lyrical) to them about progress in your current innovation projects.

For an overview of ‘Rules for Riders’ see previous post

It won’t surprise you to know we are pleased about this!  It makes a lot of sense for a book about IT innovation to be available as an e-book download, on the device that is really stirring up the publishing industry. Mark is sad that Kindle still doesn’t exist in Europe, Africa or APAC yet – but if you are thinking of getting the download in the USA – we sincerely hope you enjoy the read.

Get the Kindle edition