David M Smith

Lots has been written already about ChromeOS already and I’ve been thinking about it as a result.
So much analysis i’ve read seems to assume that ChromeOS should be compared with other OSes as we’ve evaluated them in recent history. I think this is wrong and It needs to be analyzed differently. Lets look at some reasonable questions to ask and how I see the answers and how it affects how to view the impact of ChromeOS:

ChromeOS: Is it an OS or a platform or both?

I believe this is an example of something we’ve not seen in a long time: an OS that is not being positioned as a platform. So what does that mean? Well, a platform is an overused term that can confuse but also can clarify. A key to that is recognizing that platform is a relative term, a ‘you are here’ marker in technology that depicts the point of extension. Platforms are extensible interfaces to underlying capabilities. It so happens that for as long back as I can remember, OSes have been extensible and and have been treated as platforms. Therefore looking at developer support and ecosystems etc. have been one of the best ways to assess them. But what about ChromeOS? Yes, there is a Linux kernel under there and there are no doubt some APIs, but it will not be promoted as a platform. (Google wants to promote the web, not another proprietary desktop OS). The key here will not be developer support, but rather UI and device support. It is designed to be more of an appliance or an OS in the classical textbook form from the early days of computer science (OS as the software that controls the hardware). Some may refer to it as an example of a ‘cloud OS’. OK, it is designed with cloud computing in mind, but in this case, people often tout slogans like ‘the web or cloud as the platform’. This is simplistic and misleading, but the point is that the platform level that matters here is not at the OS level but at the layer of web/cloud platforms (plural, not one). We’ve written extensively about this at Gartner.

What should ChromeOS be compared to?

So, should it be compared to windows? Not really a direct comparison as Windows is promoted more as a platform, although as developer interest has moved more towards the web/cloud, this is less true than it used to be. What about the Mac and the MacOS? Again, not really as there is a rich set of capabilities and access to it in a proprietary way that makes this a strong platform play as well. What about other browsers? Again, not really a direct comparison as this includes the OS. perhaps a decent comparison with Microsoft’s Gazelle research project can be made.

What compares most fairly to ChromeOS is the software than ran on network computers a decade ago. Call it Network Computing 2.0 if you want. Or Netbook computing. In many ways, netbooks are the network computers of today. Of course things are different now, with broadband, cloud computing, new browsers with some offline capabilities, etc. Network Computing, although ahead of its time, did succeed somewhat, using PCs, not dedicated devices. I would expect Netbook Computing to be much more successful. But we’ve already seen that users have preferred Netbooks with Windows over Linux. Why would ChromeOS would change that?

Why is Google promoting two Linux based OSes (Android and ChromeOS)?

Simple, one is a platform, one is not. Android is focused more on the mobile space while ChromeOS is more at netbooks. Google believes (as do I) that eventually the web wins (meaning HTML, Javascript …). But… how long is “eventually” and is it different in different scenarios? It will be much sooner in the netbook/desktop space – the next few years, while mobile will lag by about 5 years. Therefore Android native apps will matter especially competing with Apple iphone/appstore. But this dynamic will not last forever and the world of mobile devices and netbooks will blur.

Why is Google doing this and why now?

It’s all about Microsoft. Not going after Microsoft, but defense from Microsoft. The timing of several Google announcements recently is not coincidental:  ChromeOS (not available for a year or more), the removing of the beta label from gmail/apps, the intro of the glook outlook/gmail sync were all announced recently. This is as Microsoft’s bing search engine is getting a generally positive reception. This means that Microsoft is not giving up on search/advertising and will continue to be going after Google’s core business. This is also as Microsoft’s Windows 7 launch is beginning. Windows 7 has also been very positively received thus far and represents significant revenue opportunity for Microsoft. This is Google continuing its asymmetric warfare and ‘cutting off air supply’ strategy. The real underlying dynamic here is that it is Microsoft going after Google’s core, and Google defending it, more than it is Google coveting Microsoft’s business.
 
Some things to watch for:

- More google direct shots at Microsoft (e.g., gdrive and more)
- The more success or positive momentum Microsoft makes in search/ad the more google will turn up the heat
- A realization that doing an OS is difficult. Lots of things required to really execute
- Privacy concerns. Does anyone believe Google has any plan to make money from this or its other free offerings? Besides keeping Microsoft busy, the only other reason I can think of it to collect more information that will feed increasing privacy concerns.