Business Continuity

According to the World Health Organization, as of May 6^th, 22 countries have reported 1516 “laboratory confirmed” cases of H1N1 infections in people, 31 of whom have died. Meanwhile, the US Center for Disease Control and Prevention has reported that as of May 6, 2009 health authorities in 41 states have reported 642 cases of people ill from the H1N1 virus and two deaths.

We are extremely mindful and unreservedly respectful of the human misery and suffering that the H1N1 virus has brought to so many people in so many different parts of the world since April 24^th. It has been a very tragic two weeks. However, given the current extent of the H1N1 virus’ spread, we now believe current conditions are extremely suitable for clients to treat the current “Phase 5″ H1N1 situation as part of an unintended “pandemic stress test.” The results from analyzing this stress test can be used to significantly improve an organization’s state of readiness for the next medical crisis.

Below is a map showing the 22 countries reporting human cases of the H1N1 virus. We have also provided the latest list of the US states reporting cases of human H1N1 infections. We recommend that clients resist the temptation of becoming complacent about the H1N1 situation, especially in the wake of some reports indicating a slowing of the disease’s spread and its apparent mild virulence. Instead we suggest that clients use the two charts below to determine the specific state of readiness of a local authority’s ability to respond to the H1N1 outbreak in areas where one might have enterprise staff and operations.

New Influenza A (H1N1)

Clients are further advised to research local news sources within regions where they have customers, suppliers and enterprise operations to uncover any signs of readiness weaknesses as the H1N1 story was unfolding. While undergoing those news searches, clients should look for:

• News articles highlighting a lack of resources to cope with the current H1N1 influenza outbreak.
• Comments from local authorities indicating that responses would have been far worse had the virulence of the virus been far worse.
• Signs of overreactions and/or downright panic and to what extent insufficient local authority readiness led to such overreactions and/or panic.
• Changes in local highway traffic getting into and out of major geographic areas of business and commerce.
• Reactions by national authorities, especially restrictions in airline travel to and from areas deemed foci of the disease.

Regardless of whether the WHO ultimately declares a pandemic from the current H1N1 situation, the vagaries of viral mutations, contaminations and virulence have so far yielded an unintentional dress rehearsal for a potential time in the future of far greater destruction from a far stronger virus.

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