Brian Gammage

The IT headline of the week was Google’s announcement that it plans to deliver a new PC Operating System (OS) based on its Chrome browser, which engendered raging debate over the imminent death of Windows and the ultimate victory of cloud computing. However, such arguments only capture part of the picture.  

Yes, Windows will have to get smaller. And yes, many applications will move to the cloud. But the real news is that ties between applications and the OS are also slowly diminishing. New applications are increasingly OS-agnostic, particularly if web-based. At the same time, packaging technologies like virtualization are reducing the direct value and influence of the OS in supporting applications across different hardware. 

Many, if not most PC applications run under Windows and that will keep most customers from switching OS overnight. This is particularly true for businesses, who are unlikely to pay the price of upgrading a broad application portfolio only so as to use a different OS.

However, the PC OS is already set to get smaller. Windows 7 will present a smaller “footprint” than Windows Vista and we expect the releases that follow Windows 7 to change architectural direction. As the OS diminishes in scale, it will likely also diminish in perceived value and visibility. 

In this context, Google’s announcement is much more than just competition – it is affirmation that we are at the end of the dynasty of the big PC OS. The future PC OS must be thinner and more interchangeable (Microsoft needs this too), which naturally also opens the door to competition. The PC OS will become more commoditized, but will we really care? In the end, an OS is only there to run applications – it is a means to an end, not the end itself. Perhaps the best thing we can aspire to say of an OS is that we don’t know its there.