Comments on: Can Social Media Monitors Predict the Future?

By: Martin Edic (Techrigy)

Martin Edic (Techrigy) — Tue, 21 Oct 2008 15:51:20 +0000

About the $3 billion: I’m sure everyone on this thread would like to no the thinking behind that number! Sure hope you’re correct…

In a way this is like doing sentiment analysis (which we do). It can only be accurate when vetted by humans. Software-based sentiment is notoriously poor at context, irony, etc. Building a predictive model would have to take this into consideration also. You might combine demographics, sentiment, authority and volume into a model that creates a river indicator that says it looks like things are moving in this direction. Have to think about that. We have the ingredients, just need to find the recipe.

By: Blake Cahill

Blake Cahill — Thu, 09 Oct 2008 23:31:03 +0000

I am glad to see so many of my peers interacting with you Andrew. Looks like we are all generally heading in the same direction. Although, I would propose that know of only one peer David Rabjohns, CEO at MotiveQuest, who is going to shave off his hair on You Tube if their election predications don’t hold true. Here to hoping that Dave has hair post election day.

http://www.prweb.com/releases/2008/10/prweb1421754.htm

Cheers,

Blake Cahill
Visible Technologies

By: Spin Control

Spin Control — Wed, 08 Oct 2008 19:00:19 +0000

[...] are mixed on the question of whether social media monitoring can predict the future, but I think it’s safe to say that everyone reading this will agree that informed participation [...]

By: Simon McDermott

Simon McDermott — Wed, 08 Oct 2008 15:26:23 +0000

Hi Andrew, Attentio is a leading European player with US based clients such as J&J and HP. We have predicted frequently for clients and non-clients. We have suggested that LG would have significant customer care issues because of negative sentiment in key markets (with nice phones but poor quality). We also regularly predict movies that will flop or succeed (early) based on negative sentiment and low buzz. Buzz is better at precicting sales or profits when the item is low price and easily obtainable, but the “butterfly effect” is more apparent in larger ticket items. Simon

By: Janet Eden-Harris

Janet Eden-Harris — Tue, 07 Oct 2008 23:57:04 +0000

Andrew,

Congratulations on starting a great dialogue.

When the blogosphere first burst on to the scene, marketers have been looking for research that would make them comfortable using this medium as a predictor of overall consumer behavior. Bloggers talk a lot. About everything. But are they representative? Can their discussions be used as a predictor of buying habits?

JD Power’s (formerly Umbria) latest research shows a definitive YES. The latest research, soon to be released, comparing blogger discussions over the past year discussing their intent to buy an automobile, correlating to actual sales shows a direct pattern. Intent discussions rose earlier this year; so did sales. Those same discussions began to fall in volume through the summer. So have sales. Month after month, the data tracks.

I think the holy grail is within sight.

By: Giles Palmer

Giles Palmer — Tue, 07 Oct 2008 19:11:52 +0000

one other observation i have is that once something shows any promise with prediction, lot’s of others act on the information and effectively make the prediction happen. But then reality kicks in and usually shows that the prediction wasn’t as good as once predicted! and the cycle goes back into sync.
I wonder how many analysts consistently over a statistically relevant period out perform the stock market index trackers ? I recon none. But i may be wrong

By: Giles Palmer

Giles Palmer — Tue, 07 Oct 2008 18:25:02 +0000

This is fantastic – it’s like some kind of swarming game

OK – sorry – a day late been busy!!!

My view is that we should try to be as scientific about prediction as we can. That’s to say – try it, measure your success and try to understand what happened. The problem with we human-types is that we are good at telling a story AFTER the event and making the ‘facts’ fit our interpretation, but when it comes to prediction – it’s another matter altogether.

I think prediction is very difficult, and i’m amazed at how few people try to take this predict -> measure -> evaluate approach. It’s pretty easy to do after all.

always last to the party

giles

By: Nick

Nick — Tue, 07 Oct 2008 14:14:04 +0000

Challenging question Andrew. For years statisticians and data miners have been trying to claim predictions. Ultimately they build a model and the value of their predictions is as good as the model. At Sysomos we build models and validate them statistically towards other observable factors (such as sales, views, etc). The value to the end user is a dynamically evolving and statistically sound trending report that offers evidence of what is forming.

Best
Nick Koudas
Sysomos Inc

By: Andrew Frank

Andrew Frank — Tue, 07 Oct 2008 12:43:47 +0000

The quality and intensity of this dialog reinforce my belief that we’re approaching a turning point in social media intelligence…I’m guessing that a key side-effect of the explosion in global market uncertainty and volatility is driving business leaders to seek new sources of intelligence to better navigate in rough waters…Mark provides a great example…anyone else following this line of reasoning with customers and prospects?

By: Mark Rogers

Mark Rogers — Tue, 07 Oct 2008 05:07:49 +0000

Hi Andrew,

Thank you for including the folks at Market Sentinel in this. I have two quick observations on how live information from systems such as ours can generate real value by answering key questions:

a) What’s working? What’s stalling? Tracking Net Promoters/advocacy/positive sentiment online can quickly give brand owners the chance to reinforce success and quit funding failures.

b) Can I have what she’s having? Looking at patterns of language and citation (linking or mentioning) around competitor, or even unassociated brands can give marketers clues as to how they behave to position themselves in the same way.

This can help marketers to position themselves exactly so that their businesses thrive and steer them away from bad choices. Over time it will make for better businesses, growth and profits.

As for a prediction about the future: I would urge investors to review their portfolios looking for indicators on Net Promoters (overall positive sentiment) relative to customer service. If you cross check this metric with performance relative to the average sector P/E ratio, you can find real bargains in a market as volatile as this one. These companies will survive bad times by looking after their customers, their competitors may not.

A UK-focussed example:

http://www.marketsentinel.com/blog/2007/12/what-is-it-about-john-lewis-and-nationwide

Best wishes

Mark Rogers
CEO Market Sentinel