Andrea Di MaioYesterday I had a very interesting conversation with somebody from a large IT vendor, who was interested to know what we were hearing from our clients after the webinar that we run and the many research notes that we published between December and February.
I had to admit that I had very few inquiries and client interactions on the topic, and so I think did my colleagues. He said that this matched their impression as well. They had conducted some scenario planning last year, determining potential impacts on their clients and on their offering, but they did not feel there was enough interest to put a communication program in place. Even more, he observed, making statements and sending messages to the market while people are not willing to listen may be counterproductive.
We agreed that many people may be in denial. The eurozone looks too big to fail and negative news about deep recession and skyrocketing unemployment in Greece are somewhat compensated by the apparent agreement by the European leaders to bail them out. Between lower ratings, fluctuating spread between different state-issued bonds, official statistics about negative growth, rising youth unemployment across many European countries, and draconian and recessive measures taken to curb public debt, there does not seem to be much of a sense of urgency.
But there could be other possible explanations.
We know that some organizations have stepped up their preparedness and probably look at how they may seize competitive advantage in a turbulent situation. But they are most likely unwilling to talk about this.
Also, the problem with the euro crisis is that it hides, or complements, a deeper financial and economic crisis that has been built over time through unsustainable social security schemes, sluggish innovation and growth and distorting effects of EU funding in less developed regions. There is no certainty and no hard deadline for a euro meltdown, unlike for the conversion to the euro, with its 1999 and 2002 deadlines (and equivalent for later joiners).
However uncertainty and turbulence will characterize the business climate in Europe and beyond for quite some time. Preparedness to deal with the consequences of an extreme event – from countries defaulting on their debt, localized banking system collapse, or a restructuring of the euro – is no longer optional or desirable: it is a business imperative. Exploring alternative scenarios and developing plans (including communication plans, especially if you are a vendor) to be deployed as one particular scenario unfolds is very important for business and IT organizations in all industry sectors.
Gartner clients can find a list of relevant research notes here.
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Category: Europe and IT Tags: euro crisis
