Andrea DiMaio

Three years ago Gartner published a series of research notes about governments would use technology in year 2020. To develop this research we used traditional scenario planning techniques, building four possible scenarios according to the combination of two uncertain and independent forces. The first one was the attitude of citizens towards privacy (ranging from permissive to restrictive). The second one was the degree of intervention of governments in the economy (ranging from weak to strong). I do remember that when we selected this particular force amongst many other candidates, many criticized us as they could not see how governments – at least in western democracies – would ever go back and play an “interventionist” role in the economy.

Well, it looks like recent events proved us right, and well before 2020. Scenario planning techniques are extraordinarily useful in driving investment decisions in uncertain times, as my colleague David Furlonger also highlights in a recent postconcerning how vendors should weather the current storm.

It is time for government departments and agencies, for e-government programs, for government shared service organizations to check how sound their strategic plans are in view of a growing level of uncertainty. The current economic woes are just one example. We do not really know to what extent social networks will represent an asset or a liability for government services, nor what the exact consequences of replacing retiring employees with younger digital natives will be on each government organization, nor how serious the impact of environmental sustainability will be. Using scenario planning to identify technology choices that are a “safe bet” in most or all of the possible future is the way to go, not just to prepare for the nex 15 years, but even to face shorter term challenges.