I am in the midst of an actual research note pondering the future of magazines. I do believe there is some degree of elasticity in the definition of a magazine, but my take is it must include content assets created for or licensed for a specific content vehicle. By the way, that takes real editors who have that intermediary skill of identifying strong content and having a sense that the intended target audience would find it worth consuming. The job of editors has somehow morphed from that guy who took delight in red-lining my copy to people who use keyword magic to “curate” media.

As I point out in my research, magazine brands that have a print heritage have an opportunity that revolves around their ability to understand the attributes that will allow them to be successful in the digital world. They need to be: personal, interactive, portable, distinctive, accountable (metrics for advertisers and auditors, interactive and monetizable. Based on that, is Flipboard a magazine? Not so much.

Skiff, at launch, was a device and a platform for “content.” While somewhat nebulous in its position, given the company was part of the Hearst Corporation, the emphasis was on magazines and newspapers in that order. News Corp, with no magazine holding, will clearly be using Skiff for its global newspaper assets as a platform for distribution across myriad devices, none of which will likely be a Skiff.

While the news releases are somewhat ambiguous, it appears the Skiff device is not part of the Hearst-News Corp deal. The smart money says that Hearst is giving up on the device space especially since e-ink-based devices appear to be on a slippery slope with the advent of multimedia e-readers and tablets which offer color, video and web surfing in addition to a “good enough” reading experience. The somewhat sad irony is that Hearst was one of the prime forces behind the development of e-ink at the MIT Media Lab. Also feeling the pain on the possible shelving of the Skiff is Sprint, the hard luck telco, dumped by Amazon in favor of AT&T, looking for its niche in the new content ecosystem.

That takes us to News Corp and its deployment of Skiff. The biggest challenge for the global media giant is where best to house and deploy Skiff to leverage its capabilities. News Corp has struggled with leadership and direction in its digital strategy much of which has resulted in a series of soiled assets (Fox TV/films, newspapers, sports league relationships, MySpace) that are not able to play in the same sandbox not because of technology limitations but rather a common vision. Unless News Corp has a plan—and a good one at that—Skiff will go down as one of those e-publishing pioneers that seemed like a good idea at the time and nothing more.

That’s just the start–it gets more complicated. It is Google’s desire to offer books via web browsers as the reading interface. Google would prefer Chrome as the browser of choice, but its e-book reader will no doubt work with any popular browser. That said, the current crop of e-ink based e-readers (Nook, Kindle, Sony) either don’t support web browsers or do a terrible job in rendering browsers. Even the Alex, which has both an e-reading screen and a smaller LCD screen, does a poor job in displaying web browsers. So, unless e-ink, e-reading devices, which offer a more comfortable e-reading experience embrace new LCD technology that offers color, faster refresh rate and a low-glare display that comes close to e-ink, Google’s plan will have to focus on tablets and other similar devices. New suitable LCD displays from Qualcomm’s Mirasol and Liquidvista shows great promise, but have no public roadmap for e-reading deployment.

There’s more. It’s unclear whether Apple will allow Google’s Chrome browser on the iPad. Yes, Google Editions will work with any browser (including Safari) but there may be features in Chrome that can optimize content. From a precedent standpoint, can Apple keep Chrome off of the iPad when, in 1998, the U.S. courts forced Microsoft to allow Netscape’s browser in its OS alongside Explorer?
And just how will Google Editions render e-books in its browser? Anyone who has read an e-book in a web browser would agree it’s a poor substitute for an e-ink, e-reading device. Google Editions will probably rely on HTML 5’s ability to create browser-like containers for e-book applications. How long will it take Google (and possibly developers) to create nifty value-added e-books for that platform?

And yes, there’s even more. There are issues around DRM, support of ePub, whether or not Google plans a device to support Google Editions and how Apple will maneuver to head Google off at the pass. The e-book/e-reader wars are still in pre-game mode. Look for a number of announcements to come from the upcoming Book Expo America show in New York.

For book publishers, some of whom were waiting for signs of wide-scale acceptance of the universal e-publishing standard, ePub, the iPad came through…sort of. Although the device supports ePub, Apple is believed to be planning to implement its own DRM (Fairplay) to secure the ePub files, which could presumably then be distributed only through iTunes (that is, iBooks). If that is the case, Apple’s book efforts puts it in the same category as Amazon which utilizes a proprietary DRM that ties Kindle books Amazon.com. Hence any e-book purchased from Barnes & Noble, Sony or any of the countless e-book retailers will not work on the iPad. In addition, e-books from libraries, which are powered by Overdrive who uses Adobe’s DRM, also would not work on the iPad.

For both newspapers and magazines, the iPad remains a mystery. The demo of The New York Times, which was created in a compressed timeframe, is not much indication of what potential newspapers have on the iPad. Those are questions that can only be answered by developers who are busily downloading the new SDK and attempting to devise compelling paid or ad-supported content applications. The initial focus is on paid applications (and again, there is no evidence that consumers will pay for digital newspaper content) as there was no mention of advertising support from Apple, which many were expecting following Apple’s recent acquisition of Quattro, a mobile ad network. The same goes for magazine publishers who now have the color device they have asked for but will need to experiment with varied content applications and business models, while scrambling to source enough video to do justice to consumer expectations raised in demos.

The iPad launch will create ripples throughout the publishing industry: supply chain providers who digitize and format content as well as develop applications will thrive; standalone e-reader device manufacturers will have to re-price their devices now knowing that the WiFi-only 16G iPad can function as a high-end e-reader. Plastic Logic’s Que, the Alex and Entourage Edge may be forced to revisit their announced retail prices.

For video content such as TV and movies, a similar catch was apparent. While the iPad can clearly render beautiful hi-def full screen video, its lack of support for Flash was evident in the tiny blue cubes that appeared on web pages during the demos. This means that TV-friendly web distribution platforms like Hulu are unlikely to work on the iPad. (A Hulu app for the iPhone/Touch has been rumored for some time but has yet to materialize.) Here, too, Apple appears to have reserved the distribution of TV and movies for its device for iTunes, although YouTube remains a wildcard if it should release a sound model for content owners to monetize through rentals or sell-through. Also unexplored was the possible connection between the iPad and Apple TV, which have clearly enticing possibilities.

Then there’s the mysterious absence of any mention or demonstration of the device’s advertising potential, or Apple’s apparent newfound interest in participating in the business. With iTunes emerging as the sole channel for monetizing content of any kind on the iPad, advertising remains a critical source of revenue to publishers and video providers alike, and one on which Apple’s chief emerging rival, Google, is laser-focused with innovations like Google Goggles and QR barcodes readable by Android devices, and distributed to 100,000 businesses. Of course, these ideas require a camera, which the iPad lacks.

Still, Apple did not fail to push the envelope and generate enthusiasm for its latest creation. Now, with Apple setting the standard for content consumption devices, other manufacturers—most notably PC OEMs, will begin to launch their tablets and will look to Android and possibly Windows as device platform. In particular, Android will thrive with Google deploying its Google Editions and YouTube strategies to offer cloud-based delivery of all content to the universe of Android devices, with a well-proven advertising component.

And let’s not leave communications service providers out of the mix. Whether Apple’s choice of AT&T is one consumers find popular, it leaves Verizon and Sprint as ready partners for HP, Dell, and others whose tablets are in queue.

All that said, content companies of all kinds need to examine the iPad and the new version of the iPhone OS with a few things in mind. First, Steve Jobs is without peer in his ability to provide a vision of the future through the medium of the product he happens to be introducing at the time. In the case of the iPad, he described the magic of having the “…Internet in your hand.” True that, but for a lot of us, that came with the iPhone, the Touch and the AppStore. And as revolutionary as those products have proven themselves to be, the real magic has come from the integration of all those elements into a set of compelling content experiences.  Second, the iPad extends by one the form factors those kinds of experiences can be delivered through. Third, and this is really important, we’re still talking about the “Internet” as defined by Apple. The potential for game-changing killer apps to come for the iPad is not in question.  And the potential power of content experiences Apple can enable is not in question.  But the handle on that potential is being controlled by one entity.

In that regard, we remain puzzled at the continued estrangement between the iPhone OS-based product line – iPhone, Touch and now iPad – and Adobe Flash. Do the power-management issues cited by Apple as reasons for the iPhone’s persistent lack of Flash support? We think lack of Flash support still causes many, many media and content companies, and their developers, a great deal of strategic angst.

The iPad is not the iPod for publishing. Music was a ready and waiting asset that needed little “post-production” work to be suited for a portable device, and, when the iPod arrived, the industry had already been badly disrupted. Hence the iTunes store was quickly filled with both quantity and quality. But other forms of content are not so enthusiastic to commit to a closed channel platform that controls both device and distribution, and the next 60 days will be crucial as Apple hopes to load its electronic storefront with a selection of content that will encourage consumers beyond the “fanboy” crowd to be iPad lovers.

(This post was co-authored by Mike McGuire and Andrew Frank)

For those of you whose New Year’s resolution was to forget 2009, I must reiterate a research position stated late last year: devices by themselves just don’t matter. Consumers will buy content and expect to consume that content across a set of devices based on usage scenarios. Sure I will have a ball pushing buttons and asking questions to the device folk this week; what will dictate winners from losers is what standards the device supports, what publishers it is working with to build enhanced content and what formats will be used on these devices to drive new content experiences. Having played with the Kindle, Nook and a few others, reading a book on a device is table stakes; show me what you have that will delight consumers and encourage publishers (and leading authors such as John Grisham) to go full bore into e-publishing.

I hope to see device companies and their partners (service providers, software publishers, developers) go far beyond book experiences to showcasing newspaper and magazine content on varied devices. To date, I have yet to see an e-reader implementation of such content that looks better than the glorified RSS feed popularized by Amazon’s Kindle.

Lastly, it’s expected that much of the e-reading talk will be about a company whose product isn’t even expected to be at CES—the Apple Tablet. Based on the “where there’s smoke” principles of journalism, a device from Apple is imminent (loosely defined) and may be among the first to offer a viable ecosystem (developer community, iPhone OS, device) that will present e-reading experiences to consumers that are based, at least in theory, on Apple’s iTunes LP (Extras) enhanced music downloads.

Stay tuned for on location updates on e-readers and other news from CES.

To be fair, Kindle has a large number of public domain books it has wrapped in  its proprietary .azw DRM, but again we’re talking walled garden.

Here’s what I like about the Nook:

Freedom to buy books from multiple sources as well as read library books: The book I downloaded from my public library (in secure PDF) was easily transferred to the Nook using Adobe Digital Edition software. When connected to your PC via USB, the Nook shows up as a device in the software, and from there, it’s a simple drag and drop to the device.

The Daily: The first tab on the color-screen menu is called “The Daily,” a nice little what’s new page with some sort easy and commentary from such authors as Dave Barry and Steve King. This is just one of the little surprises that give the Nook its personality.

The ability to loan books: with The Nook, readers can loan anyone with either Nook or Barnes & Noble software on their desktop or smartphone, a book for 14 days. Not all books can be loaned (the titles are chosen by publishers) and one book cannot be lent to the same person twice. When a book is lent, it will show up in the recipients’ “the daily” section.

The mutlichannel experience: While not in place yet, bringing your Nook into a Barnes & Noble store should result in a few surprises. The Nook will automatically connect to B&N’s free AT&T wireless and present special book offers as well as other in-store special (i.e., free coffee at the B&N coffee bar).

The navigation buttons: In this case, I am referring to the page turning buttons alongside the e-reading window. They are nicely recessed and have small raised bumps to allow you to push without looking directly at the buttons.

Here’s what I am still pondering about the Nook

The color screen: At first, I found the color screen distracting because it interfered with the reading experience in the e-reading window above.  The color screen goes dark after 30 or so seconds and becomes a navigational tool meaning you can swipe the screen to turn pages. I found the swiping on the color screen to be less responsive than what I am used to on my iPod.

Device synching: Perhaps and early bug, but the book synching between my Nook and my desktop PC e-reading software does not work. I know a software update for the desktop and iPhone app is being planned.

Here’s what I don’t like about the Nook

Newspaper e-reading: Like all other dedicated e-readers, the newspaper experience is not very good. The content is rendered in ePub, so it looks slightly better than the Kindle, but not enough to be of significant interest.

Odd navigational features: Some of the reading navigation such as up and down arrows and opening content take place in the lower color window. I find it awkward; there should be some sort of controller by the e-reading window to handle those functions.

In reality, the battle is not an all-out war as the Kindle is in ready supply and Barnes & Noble is fulfilling pre-orders; you cannot walk into a Barnes & Noble retail store and buy one just yet. Once the Nook is on the shelf in its close to 800 B&N stores, a number of other e-readers will be in retail channels (such as the Alex) or close to shipping. With that in mind, it will be interesting to see how the Nook does when there are other e-readers on the market that have similar features (two screens) and support ePub. Clearly, the Nook will have a window of opportunity, but just how big that window is remains to be seen.

In homage to the late Paul Harvey, here’s the rest of the story: Google’s forthcoming cloud/content distribution plans dubbed Google Edition suggests a portable, secure storage locker for an individual’s e-books that is accessible across a number of devices surely can extend to news publishers. That virtual storage locker also could contain newspaper and magazine content. As Google develops rich content applications, built in HTML5, for cloud content consumption, a few innovative newspaper readers must be in the works. Google is primed to support any sort of content application it builds or distributes with a variety of business models (ads, ala carte, and subscription) so the company that does not evil hopes to show publishers it is their friend.

The message is clear: if you want to block you content from the most powerful search engine on earth, be our guest. Want to build your own platform for distribution or work with any number of nascent partners (ala Journalism Online) to build paywalls, go right ahead. Google is betting these efforts will fail and that via Google Edition it will play a major role in the content distribution business. At that point, Google no doubt feels newspapers (along with magazines) will line up behind book publishers to ride the cloud into future profitability.

There’s more: the device will have two screens. A top screen, the reading pane, is an e Ink display and will not come with a web browser (E Ink based-browsers offer a notoriously poor web experience). The bottom TFT screen will be a color display and is powered by the Android O/S which, Barnes and Noble says, allows for optimum navigation and user experience in a small space on a mobile device. . The bottom window will be for shopping but also will support Android apps, however any apps that require web access will have to use WiFi support as 3G service is available only for book-related transactions (which keeps bandwidth costs down for B&N). Barnes and Noble will also facilitate synching of all content between The Nook, smartphone apps and Barnes and Noble’s desktop ereading software.

Anyway you slice Barnes and Noble’s announcement, The Nook is a game changer for the current market and one that will force Amazon’s hand even with Amazon’s recent release of an international Kindle. Regarding loaning ebooks you can lend Nook to Nook, as well as Nook to other Barnes & Noble eReader-enabled devices (such as iPhone, iPod touch, select Motorola and Blackberry smartphones, PC and Mac.) Just as with a physical book, the lender will not have access to the book during the two-week period (or earlier if the person you loaned it to returns it sooner). Banres and Noble plans on fully leveraging its retail presence by offering Nook owners special in-store content such as book previews. By encouraging Nook users to browse and shop with their devices in Barnes and Noble stores, these early adopters become product evangelists (not to mention demonstrators).

By supporting e.pub, the International Digital Publishing Forum’s open ereading format, consumers have a wider range of choices than with Amazon’s Kindle which supports Amazon’s proprietary DRM, .azw. with only the Kindle DX supporting PDF. Consumers also can borrow books from public libraries who offer digital lending programs as the vast majority of libraries support .epub and .pdf with their titles.

Because of its rich set of features, retail merchandizing possibilities and open format support, The Nook not only impacts ereaders in the market (Kindle, Sony Reader) it takes some of the luster off of such pending ereaders as Plastic Logic’s Que and the new wireless iRex. The next move in the ereader space belongs to Amazon. That sound you heard was the air being let out of the Kindle’s tires. Amazon is now forced with the decision to be pragmatic and support the open .epub format or risk being locked out of the market.

Oh, did I forget to mention that the new Kindle “global edition” will be powered by AT&T. That large groan you heard was from Sprint, Amazon’s current wireless partner who powers the mysterious “Whispersync” for current Kindle owners. AT&T  has a network of global partners who come together to provide AT&T customers (somewhat costly) global cell phone reach. The difference here is that Amazon foots the bill for the bandwidth (at least they do upfront) used to download books. In the case of downloading newspapers (which are larger files sent daily), the cost is transparently passed on to consumers who pay about $10 per month for each newspaper subscription.

Looking at this announcement through Amazon’s eyes, this announcement has (at least) three missions here:

Ward off the growing list of competitors (iRex, Sony, Plastic Logic) who have announced or plan to announce new ereaders that come complete with wireless partners and who have their sights set on international distribution.

1. By gaining a dominant position in ereader sales, establish its proprietary ereader document format, .azw as the standard for the ebook market as it battles against .epub, the open global ebook standard.
2. Take some of the steam out of the hype out of Apple’s non-announcement of a tablet device. The latest “public rumors” indicate that a device will be in the market at the end of Q1, 2010. Having the Kindle, which is priced about half of the rumored Apple tablet price, into global channels before the first Apple tablet hits the market would be a strategic advantage to Amazon. Publishers may be pragmatic and lend greater support via more titles to a lower priced globally distributed device than a rumor no matter how cool.

But, things are not that easy. Even a lower cost, globally supported Kindle does not deliver a viable newspaper or magazine experience. Also, powerful global carriers such as BT, Vodafone, Telecom Italia, Orange, Telia, etc.. will not be satisfied with revenue sharing deals with AT&T in supporting its network for Kindle downloads; shortly, we will see major carriers outside the U.S. forge relationships with ereader manufacturers for local or inter-regional support (pan European, for example) as well as retail channel support.

Amazon’s announcement indicates the company is well aware of the market dynamics that threaten its dominance. Will Amazon have the tactical prowess to remain a market leader supporting a proprietary ebook format and offering a device that is a non-starter for newspapers and magazines? At this point, the answer is no, but Amazon often forces us to expect the unexpected, so stay tuned.

Back when I made my living as a reporter, we called such reports the byproduct of a slow news day which generally coincided with a Friday (the day this story dropped). Just mentioning Hulu in a news story will get you a certain amount of lineage (real or web) even if the story is far-fetched.

A lengthy list of holes can easily be poked into this notion, but let’s just focus on a few:

1. Time’s Ann Moore has previously stated magazines won’t work on a e-reader (Kindle or other) unless it offered a color screen. Last time I checked no current e-reader or even one officially announced supports color.
2. If Apple comes out with a tablet in 2010, it would break the color barrier (so to speak) but the smart money says that Apple will want to take control of magazine distribution via iTunes. Many magazines publishers already have applications in the iTunes store; how difficult will it be for them to enhance those for the tablet?
3. Speaking of an Apple tablet, if it launches, its price point will likely be aimed at early adopters rather than fans of People and Cosmo.
4. Magazines have been unable to sell digital editions (with such able partners as Texterity and Zinio); one wonders what marketing brainstorm will allow them to do better in this channel?
5. Let’s not even approach the subject of formats. While the book world is battling over setting .epub as an industry standard, there’s no mention in this report of what sort of format would be deployed to create basic or even “enhanced” magazines that feature audio and video.

One other issue that cannot be overlooked and that’s a possible claim of price fixing of ad rates if the majority of publishers band together in any sort of venture. Perhaps a long shot, but certainly worth mentioning.

Hulu is a superb exercise in the technology skill it takes to distribute high-quality TV/video content over the web. To date, the company has not been a profit machine and the company is looking at a few new revenue wrinkles such as becoming a white-label online video publishing platform provider (OVPP) for TV networks in the U.K. Magazine publishers would be wise to bet on a future that includes partnerships with companies who have been successful in content distribution rather than follow a path that will end in a financial dead end.